Tag Archives: oil prices forecast

Brent price finds support between USD60 and USD70Increased pressure from President Trump on the Saudis to halt oil production cuts last week had only a temporary impact. Brent prices are currently being underpinned by several factors, including hopes of a US-China trade deal and OPEC+ production cuts, in particular. The Saudis have been aggressively cutting their production recently. With output of 10.1m barrels/day (mbd) in February, they are already below their 10.3mbd agreed target. In so...

Oil prices are caught between concerns that trade disputes will dent demand, and the risk of supply shortages due to production shortfalls and capacity constraints. We think that these combined factors justify our estimated fair value for oil.In light of the OPEC + Russia decision to increase output, oil prices declined from the end-June to mid- August. This decline is not limited to oil: all commodities have been affected. Industrial metals declined by 12%, and non-energy commodities by...

Having faltered this year, predictions of prices above USD60/b in 2017 appear premature.The market was highly optimistic about oil price at the beginning of this year, with oil analysts expecting that prices would have recovered to USD60-65 by now. These hopes have clearly been dashed, as WTI prices have fluctuated in a range of USD45-55 since January 1.We have been much less optimistic than the market, based on our own modelling of the equilibrium oil price, which has proved a reliable...