(early post ahead of start of a new business trip to Europe. Posts will continue albeit irregularly) Swiss Franc The euro has appreciated by 0.19% to 1.1637 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates This is it: The next 48 hours will be among the busiest of the year. The Bank of England meets tomorrow, and it not only gives a...
Read More »FX Daily, October 31: Month-End Leaves Market at Crossroads
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.41% to 1.628 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Global equity markets are closing another strong month. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed on the day, but up 4.3% in October, the 10th consecutive monthly advance. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is also flattish today, but up 1.6%...
Read More »FX Daily, October 30: Dollar Slips in Consolidative Activity
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.29% to 1.606 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The markets are mixed, mostly responding to idiosyncratic developments, as the week’s large events loom ahead. These BOJ, BOE, and FOMC meetings, eurozone flash CPI and US jobs reports. In addition, US President Trump is expected to...
Read More »FX Daily, October 25: Sterling and Aussie Interrupt the Waiting Game
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.32% to 1.1689 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Most participants seemed comfortable marking time ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting, and an announcement President Trump’s nominations to the Federal Reserve. However, softer than expected Australian Q3 CPI and a stronger than expected UK Q3...
Read More »FX Daily, October 19: Kiwi Drop and Sterling Losses Punctuate Subdued FX Market
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.25% to 1.1539 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The 30th anniversary of the 1987 equity market crash the major US benchmarks at record highs. The drop in the market was at least partly a function of the lack of capacity, sufficient instruments, and regulatory regime. Each of these...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: The Markets and the Long Shadow of Politics
Summary: Rise in paper asset prices, including so-called cyber currencies, reflects the abundance of capital. Have we forgotten what Minski taught again? Political considerations may dominate ahead of the ECB meeting later this month. Why should we think there is anything amiss by looking at the global capital markets? The S&P 500 and the German Dax are at record levels. The Japanese market is at 20-year...
Read More »FX Daily, September 25: Euro and Kiwi Dragged Lower
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.37% to 1.1538 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The end of the Grand Coalition in Germany and the need for a coalition in New Zealand are weighing on the respective currencies. The euro was marked down in Asia and briefly dipped below $1.19 before recovering to $1.1940 by the middle of...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Old and New Drivers in the Week Ahead
Last week’s developments will continue to shape the investment climate in the week ahead, and at the same time, new inflation readings from the US, EMU, and Japan will add incrementally to investors’ information set. We do not expect the results of the German election to have much market impact. The most likely result is a strong signal of continuity with a return of the Grand Coalition. At the same time, French...
Read More »FX Daily, September 21: Market Digests Fed, Greenback Consolidates, Antipodeans Tumble
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.17% to 1.1477 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The market has mostly interpreted the Fed’s action in line with our thinking. Despite the lowering of the long-run Fed funds rate, the shifting one of the three hikes from 2019 into 2020, and recognizing that the weaker price impulses...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: FOMC Highlights Big Week
New Zealand holds elections at end the of next week as well. While the German contest does not appear close and the odds on the most likely scenario are a return of the Grand Coalition, in New Zealand, the center-right’s decade-long rule is being seriously challenged by a resurgent Labour Party. The New Zealand dollar fell by around 5.7% in August. The pullback was twice as deep and lasted twice as long the as the...
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