Tag Archives: macro

The US and China report July CPI figures in the coming days and they are likely moving in opposite directions. Headline US CPI is likely to rise for the first time since peaking in June 2022. China's CPI has been slowing and is likely to go negative on a year-over-year basis. It finished last year at 1.8% and in June was unchanged year-over-year. The divergence of policy is what is driving force of the exchange rate, and the    question is not really so much why the...

After experiencing one of its worst weeks of the year, the US dollar is stretched from a technical point of view while the short-term interest rate adjustment has gone as far as it can without resurrecting ideas of a Fed rate cut this year. Given the lighter economic calendar in the coming days, we suspect that the greenback may consolidate ahead of the FOMC meeting that concludes on July 26. The derivatives market shows that a quarter-point hike is seen as a...

The week ahead is less eventful than the week that just passed, which saw the anticipated hike by the ECB and the small cut by the PBOC. The Fed delivered the widely tipped hawkish hold and the US CPI continued to decelerate. The dollar fell against the G10 currencies last week but the yen.  Sterling, and the Canadian dollar rose to new highs for the year,  Momentum indicators are stretched.  This coupled with risk-reward considerations suggest that the dollar could...

Of the three G3 central banks that meet in the days ahead, the market is the most confident of a rate hike by the European Central Bank. The market sees a hawkish hold from the Federal Reserve. However, the idea of a skip, a topic which even Fed officials have broached, would seem to pre-commit to another hike, and this is not typically the central bank's modus operandi. Moreover, it may be difficult for the Fed to resume hikes in July if inflation falls as we...

True to the historic pattern, the US debt ceiling was used by the party not in control of the executive branch to exact spending concessions. Despite the extreme partisanship, the brinkmanship tactics, and fears that this time would be different, there was no default. As Bismarck once quipped, "Laws are like sausages and it is best not seen them being made." Still, as a consequence, the rebuilding of the Treasury's account and bill issuance is seen tightening...

June is a pivotal month. The US debt-ceiling political drama cast a pall over sentiment even if it did not prevent the dollar from rallying or the S&P 500 and NASDAQ from setting new highs for the year. It is as if the two political parties in the US are playing a game of chicken and daring the other side to capitulate. Both sides are incentivized to take to the brink to convince their constituents that they secured the best deal possible. No side seems to...

Mostly stronger than expected economic data, hawkish rhetoric by several Fed officials, some signs of progress on the perverse drama over the debt ceiling, and a solid week for bank shares helped the dollar extend its recent recovery. The greenback rose to new highs for the year against the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan. The euro took out April's low (~$1.0790) and sterling traded briefly below $1.24. The US two-year note yield takes a six-session rally into the...

There are different ways to measure it, but the dollar just put in its best week of the year. The greenback rose against all the G10 currencies, and the Dollar Index rose by the most since last September. It also appreciated against most emerging market currencies, with the notable exceptions of a handful of Latam currencies. It seems to be an overdue technical correction. Few genuinely believe that the US will default given the ominous consequences, but the...

The combination of the US bank stress, the approaching debt ceiling, and the Fed's opening the door to a pause in rates weighed on risk sentiment and dragged the greenback lower. KBW's indices for large and regional bank shares bled 7.4%-8.0% lower last week to cut through March's lows like a hot knife through butter. Still the price action was constructive ahead of the weekend. US Treasury Secretary Yellen warned that the X-date when the government's cash runs out...

As April draws to a close, the systemic stress in the banking sector continues to subside, and the market is turning its attention to likely rate hikes by Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in early May. Although, as in March, the market sees the May hike to 5.25% to be the last Fed hike. Before the bank stress, the swap market had been leaning to a 5.75% terminal rate. It is still early to fully appreciate the magnitude and duration of the tightening in...