Tag Archives: macro

There are several macro highlights in the week ahead, during which Chinese markets are closed for the Lunar New Year celebration. The preliminary January purchasing managers surveys pose headline risk. However, the survey data, for example, had the US composite below the 50 boom/bust level every month in H2 22, which likely overstates the case, as the first look at Q4 22 US GDP will probably show. While some improvement is expected, composite PMI readings are...

The week ahead is chock full of data, including Japan, the UK, and Australia's CPI. The UK and Australia report on the labor market. The US, UK, and Canada also report retail sales. The early Fed surveys from New York and Philadelphia for January will be released. China's December data are due, and it is also expected to report its estimate of Q4 GDP, where some economists forecast a contraction. While headline risk is associated with these economic reports, we...

The US dollar's bull market appears to have come to a climactic end late in Q3 22 and early Q4. In the last three months of 2022, the G10 currencies, except the Canadian dollar, rose by more than 5% against the greenback. In addition, six of the G10 currencies appreciated more than 7.5%. Such significant moves are often followed by consolidation and corrections. These countertrend moves can offer new opportunities to adjust currency exposures.Three main...

As the year of aggressive monetary tightening winds down, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England will likely slow the pace of rate hikes. All three delivered 75 bp hikes in November and will probably hike by 50 bp this month and moderate the pace again in the first part of next year.Price pressures remain elevated even if near or slightly past the peaks. The G10 central banks are not finished tightening, though central banks from...

Policymakers have often said that exchange rates should reflect fundamentals. What does that really mean? Can they do anything but that? It begs the question of which fundamental factors they should reflect. Therein lies the rub. We are still struck by the latest Bank for International Settlements figures. Their survey found that the average daily turnover in the foreign exchange market was $7.5 trillion a day. World trade last year was about $22.5 trillion. The...

There are three potential inflection points. The first is a pause from the Fed; if nothing else, Powell signaled it was too early to think about it. The second is for the Bank of Japan to change monetary policy. Governor Kuroda has signaled that it is not time. Conventional wisdom is there will not be a change until Kuroda's term ends next April. However, we note that the surveys suggest economists and BOJ inflation forecasts for next year have converged. The third...

With this month's hike, the Federal Reserve would have raised overnight rates by 300 bp while doubling the pace that its balance sheet is shrinking over the past 100 days. The US economy is the largest in the world, and US interest rates and the dollar are vital benchmarks. America's centrality remains in what has been dubbed a G-Zero world, even if its share of the world economy is a bit less than it used to be, or the dollar's share of global reserves has been...

The week ahead is busy. Three G7 central banks meet, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England. In addition, Japan and Canada report their latest CPI readings, and the flash September PMI are released.  There are three elements of the Fed's meeting that are worth previewing. First is the interest rate decision itself and the accompanying statement. Ironically, this seems to be the most straightforward. Even before the August CPI surprise, the...

The highlights of September include continued substantial rate hikes by the major central banks, save Japan. The Tories will pick a new leader, who will become the next prime minister of the UK. Italy looks determined to have a right-wing government. Sweden goes to the polls in mid-September. The price of defeating the Social Democrats, who have governed since 2014, maybe for the center-right to form an alliance with the nationalist Sweden Democrats. Like Brother of...

The poor preliminary PMI readings, the ongoing European energy crisis, and the recognized commitment of most major central banks to rein in prices through tighter financial conditions are risking a broad recession. These considerations are weighing on sentiment and shaping the investment climate. Most high-frequency data due in the days ahead will not change this, even if they pose some headline risk.  What we have seen among some central bankers applies to market...