Tag Archives: jobs

The macroeconomic fundamentals have not changed much in the first three months of the year.  The US growth remains near trend, the labor market continues to improve gradually, both headline and core inflation remain firm, and the Federal Reserve remains on course to hike rates at least a couple more times this year, even though the market is skeptical.  The uncertainty surrounding US fiscal has not been lifted, and it...

Personal Income growth in February 2017 was more mixed than it had been of recent months. Nominal Disposable Per Capita Income increased 3.73% year-over-year, while in real terms Per Capita Income was up 1.57%. For the former, that was among the better monthly results over the past year, while the latter was near the worst. The difference is still calculated inflation, where the rising oil component of every deflator...

Today’s bland payroll report did little to suggest much of anything. All the various details were left pretty much where they were last month, and all the prior trends still standing. The headline Establishment Survey figure of 235k managed to bring the 6-month average up to 194k, almost exactly where it was in December but quite a bit less than November. In other words, despite what is mainly written as continued...

The US jobs report was largely in line with expectations. February was the second consecutive month that the US economy created more than 200k jobs. United States Nonfarm payrolls It is the first time since last June and July. The 235k is just below the revised January 238k gain (initially 227k). U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, February 2017(see more posts on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to...

Summary The 94 mln people POTUS claims are not working is true but terribly misleading. What happened to agriculture a century ago is happening to manufacturing. New industries are less labor intensive than smokestack industries. In a speech to the joint session of Congress that was widely recognized as “presidential,” US President Trump said twice that there are 94 mln Americans out of the labor market.  It is...

Summary: Fed, BOJ, and BOE meet next week, each may adjust economic assessments in more favorable direction. Key challenge for many investors is the new US Administration. US employment, EMU inflation, Q4 GDP, and China’s PMI are among the data highlights. Three major central banks meet in the week ahead, and there are several important reports due out that will give investors more insight into how the...

United States The dollar and US yields are recouping more of yesterday’s decline. A break of $1.0480-$1.05 would suggest the euro’s upside bounce is exhausted. A dollar move above JPY116.80-JPY117.25 would also hint that the greenback was going to make an other run toward JPY118.30-JPY118.60. Sterling support is seen in the $1.2285-$1.2310 area. The Canadian dollar is struggle to sustain it upward momentum. A US dollar...

Summary ADP and Non-Manufacturing ISM lend credence to our fear of a disappointing national jobs report. Economists estimate only a small part of the manufacturing jobs loss can be traced to trade policy. 19 states increased min wage at the start of the year, but the impact on the nation’s average weekly earnings will likely be too small to detect. We have suggested the risk of disappointment with the US...

Summary: High-wage economies of Canada, EU, Japan and Australia account for nearly half of US corporate employment abroad. And even in low-wage regions, the high-wage parts tend to draw more US employment. The new US administration may have second thoughts about pivot to Asia, but US companies may not. US Flag Around the Earth --- Image by © Images.com/Corbis - Click to enlarge The US economy created roughly...

United States The US dollar has slipped lower in response to the jobs data, but quickly recovered. The details are mixed, but is unlikely to change views on the outlook for Fed policy. The headline job creation was in line with expectations at 178k. Job growth of the back two months were shaved by 2k, concentrated in October. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, November 2016(see more posts on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, ) Source:...