Tag Archives: Italy

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). - Click to enlarge FX Rates After softening ahead of the weekend, the US dollar has begun the new week on a firm note.  It is gaining against most major and emerging market currencies.  Outside of what appears to be a staged call between US President Elect Trump and the Taiwanese President, the developments in Europe grabbed the...

Summary: US developments have driven the dollar rally and bond market decline over the past three weeks. Attention shifts to European politics and the ECB meeting. Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia meet but are unlikely to change policy. United States There were significant moves in interest rates and currencies last month. The drama was primarily spurred by the solidification of expectations...

Update December 2016: Italians rejected the referendum that seeks to increase power of the prime minister and reduce power of the two chambers parliament. Prime minister Renzi has promised to resign. This opens the door for new elections, in which the anti-euro parties Movimento 5 stelle (5 star movement) and Lega Nord (Northern League) may strengthen. ————————————————————————————— Update December 2013: Bear in mind...

Marc Chandler - Click to enlarge I was on Bloomberg Television with Joe Wisenthal this afternoon. I explain what I have been suggesting for the past couple of weeks, namely that the Austrian presidential election this weekend is the third point in the populist-nationalist wave, not Italy. The changes in the Senate are opposed by a broad array of forces in Italy, including many very pro-European elements, like former...

Marc Chandler - Click to enlarge I was on Bloomberg Television with Joe Wisenthal this afternoon. I explain what I have been suggesting for the past couple of weeks, namely that the Austrian presidential election this weekend is the third point in the populist-nationalist wave, not Italy. The changes in the Senate are opposed by a broad array of forces in Italy, including many very pro-European elements, like former...

Summary: Italy’s referendum defeat is not simply a victory for populist-nationalist forces. Freedom Party victory in Austria is a victory for said forces. Even if Hofer wins, there are sufficient checks that make it difficult to hold EU or EMU referendum. The ADP private sector employment estimate will steal some thunder from the official estimate on Friday. Although the two times do not line up tightly in the...

Summary: Forces emanating from the US and Europe are driving the capital markets. The moves may be stretched technically, but the market adjustment has further to run as not even two Fed hikes are discounted for next year. European political concerns and an ECB expected to continue its asset purchases have driven German 2-year yields to new record lows. There are powerful moves underway in the capital...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, November 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). Source: - Click to enlarge The GBPCHF rate has slipped a little in early morning trading today as investors await the UK budget due today. Amongst the usual leaks and rumours there appears likely to be a budget which will not be overly generous as some expect but will seek to keep the UK economy on a fairly stable course. UK...

Today Credit Suisse released its latest annual global wealth report, which traditionally lays out what is perhaps the biggest reason for the recent “anti-establishment” revulsion: an unprecedented concentration of wealth among a handful of people, as shown in its infamous global wealth pyramid, an arrangement which as observed by the “shocking” political backlash of the past few months suggests that the lower ‘levels’...

Summary: Italy is the epicenter of the next potential populist “shock.” A defeat of the referendum is seen as intensifying the political risk. Renzi has wavered again regarding his political future if the referendum loses. Many investors are closely watching Italy. It is seen as the next flashpoint for the wave of populism after Brexit and Trump’s success. The constitutional referendum will be held on...