With declining manufacturing sentiment and recent downward revisions to our US and euro area GDP forecasts, we have revised down our world real GDP growth forecast for 2019. A US-China trade agreement will be key to avoiding further growth deterioration. After recent downward revisions to our US and euro area GDP forecasts and against a backdrop of declining global manufacturing sentiment, we have revised our world real GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 3.3% from 3.5% previously.Manufacturing...
Read More »Global business survey heralds inflection in economic activity
A slowdown in global business sentiment is not too worrying at this stage, but further deterioration will trigger downward revisions to GDP projections.Markit’s world manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) dropped from 53.5 in April to 53.1 in May. All in all, the world PMI declined in four of the first five months of 2018. No region has been spared the decline in business sentiment. Nonetheless, the index is still well above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from...
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