Tag Archives: GDP growth

For us the Net National Savings Rate is the best alternative indicator to GDP growth. The Net National Savings Rate (NNSR) is rather positively correlated with the change in wealth, with the establishment of future productive capacity, the price of government bonds and currency valuations. The relationship of GDP growth to those four criteria, however, is often a negative correlation. We critized GDP growth that has...

Strong money-supply growth in February enables us to maintain our forecast for euro area real GDP growth unchanged at 1.8% in 2016. Euro area bank credit flows increased again in February, in line with other indicators such as the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey (see the chart below) and quite remarkably given the challenging financial context in February. We continue to believe that the credit cycle has legs. Moreover, we expect the ECB’s new Targeted Long Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO...

We show the two phases or two innings or phases of Swiss franc appreciation: The “risk aversion game” and the “inflation game”. With the weakening of emerging markets and the strengthening of the United States in 2013/2014, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had won the first battle in the war against financial market, the “risk aversion game“, the first innings in a two-part match. Risk aversion is lower because the United States recovered thanks to lower oil prices.The “inflation game”...