Tag Archives: Fed meeting

We still see the Fed's expected July rate cut as fundamentally of a “recalibration” nature.We expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut its fed funds target rate range by 0.25%, and leave the door open for another cut later, after its two-day policy meeting ending on 31 July.Chairman Jerome Powell has a lot of explaining to do as to why the Fed is making this rate cut, only six months after the last rate hike: this explaining could condition the path of future interest rate moves.The Fed will...

While we expect the Fed to stay on hold, it could supply new insight into the threshold for a rate cut (which we consider improbable).The Fed meeting concluding on 1 May should provide only limited new information.The domestic growth backdrop is good and equity markets are buoyant, but low core inflation and the proximity of the theoretical ‘neutral rate’ will likely stifle the Fed’s temptations to raise rates. Instead, the Fed should signal it is happy to stay on hold for now.While the...

The outcome of the March Fed meeting had a strong dovish undertone, crystallising the dovish policy shift at play since early January.The Fed confirmed the end of balance sheet reduction for September 2019. Meanwhile, the dot plot showed an overwhelming majority of members expected no rate hike at all this year (versus two rate increases expected at the December meeting).As expected, Powell took his ‘central banker to the world’ hat, expressed concern about the global economy, including the...

This week’s Fed meeting will likely to see a rise in Fed policy makers’ forecasts for 2018 growth and rates.The Federal Reserve meets on 20–21 March and is widely expected to hike rates by a quarter point (moving the interest rate on excess reserves up to 1.75%). This decision is ‘priced in’ at 100% according to Bloomberg data.The focus will be on signals for further tightening in the rest of the year, especially as there will be plenty of materials to consider (including a fresh ‘dot plot’...