Tag Archives: Featured

Two high-frequency economic reports stand out in the week ahead:  The US November employment report and the preliminary eurozone CPI. The Federal Reserve has deftly distanced itself from any one employment report. As a result, it would take a significant miss of the median forecast (Bloomberg survey) to alter market expectations for a 50 bp hike when the FOMC meeting concludes on December 14.Economists are looking for around a 200k increase in US non-farm payrolls...

[Originally published August 13, 2008] It’s been 75 years since the federal government, on the spurious grounds of fighting the Great Depression, ordered the confiscation of all monetary gold from Americans, permitting trivial amounts for ornamental or industrial use. This happens to be one of the episodes Kevin Gutzman and I describe in detail in our new book, Who Killed the Constitution? The Fate of American Liberty from World War I to George W. Bush. From the...

In an earlier article, I explained that the collapse in the long-dated UK government bond (or gilts) market on September 28 that followed the ill-fated Kwarteng “mini budget” of a few days earlier had exposed a hitherto underappreciated problem: UK pension schemes were massively exposed to changes in long-dated gilts rates. The week after the mini budget, the gilts market became very unsettled. To quote the Financial Times: Huge shifts in bond prices were leaving...

Austrian crypto platform Bitpanda has received a full operating license from the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority or BaFin for the custody and proprietary trading of crypto assets. Bitpanda claims to be the first European retail investment platform to obtain the license which was introduced by BaFin in 2020, allowing it to actively market and offer services in the German market. Founded in 2014, Bitpanda now has nearly four million investors on its...

Overview: The capital markets are quiet today with Japan on holiday and the US on holiday tomorrow. Asia Pacific equities were mostly firmer after yesterday’s rally on Wall Street. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is about 0.25% higher and at its best level in three months. US futures are steady to slightly higher. Benchmark 10-year yields are little changed. The dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies, with Scandis leading the way. Sweden is expected to raise rates...

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a somewhat heavier bias after bouncing higher yesterday. All the G10 currencies are higher, led by the New Zealand dollar, where the central bank is expected to hike first thing tomorrow. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer. Those that are not, like the South Korean won and Mexican peso, are nursing minor losses. The surge in Covid cases weighed on Chinese shares that trade in Hong Kong, while the CSI 300 posted...

My previous article demonstrated how the free market solves a boom-bust crisis and is the only solution, its effectiveness depending upon the magnitude of the crisis and, more importantly, how much the government intervenes in response. The bigger the problem created by the Fed, the greater the crisis and the more government intervenes, and the slower the economy recovers. Here we consider how the market works most effectively, with the efficiency of the process...

Overview: Surging Covid cases in China and Hong Kong are undermining hopes of a Covid-pivot and the US dollar is broadly higher. Equities are under pressure to start the week. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific but Japan, fell earlier today. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is paring last week’s minor gain, which was the fifth consecutive weekly rise. US stock futures are lower, while the 10-year US Treasury yield is flat near 3.83%. European yields are mostly around...

In 2022, the Portuguese fintech ecosystem entered a new stage of development, marked by greater maturity of the sector, continued innovation through partnerships and a dynamic venture capital (VC) market, a new report by industry trade group Portugal Fintech, in collaboration with KPMG, Visa and law firm Morais Leitao, claims. The Portugal Fintech Report 2022, released in October, shows a resilient fintech industry that has continued to grow, innovate and attract...

Only when speculative sizzle attracts no buyers / marks will the bottom be in. There hasn’t been a truly organic bottom in stocks in decades. Fifteen years of relentless central bank manipulation since the 2008-09 Global Financial Meltdown has persuaded punters that central banks will always save us should the market turn down because relentless central bank suppression of interest rates and expansion of liquidity (a.k.a. free money for financiers) are now necessary...