Tag Archives: Featured

[unable to retrieve full-text content]An Abrupt Drop. Let’s turn back to our regular beat: the U.S. economy and its capital markets. We’ve been warning that the Fed would never make any substantial increase to interest rates. Not willingly, at least. Each time Fed chief Janet Yellen opens her mouth, out comes a hint that more rate hikes might be coming.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Head Fake Theory Confirmed? This is a brief update on our last overview of economic data. Although we briefly discussed employment as well, the overview was as usual mainly focused on manufacturing, which is the largest sector of the economy by gross output.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Despite her incredible money printing and FX purchases, the SNB has many roots in the Austrian School of Economics, a school that maintains that money printing leads to price inflation. One of the major Austrian economists was Carl Menger.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]While subtle, the general public loss of faith in central banking has been obvious to anyone who has simply kept their eyes open: it started in Japan where in February hardware stores were reported that consumers were hoarding cash, as confirmed by the spike in demand for safes, "a place where the interest rate on cash is always zero, no matter what the central bank does."

[unable to retrieve full-text content]It’s a sign the world is getting used to negative interest rates when what once seemed bizarre starts looking like the norm. Consider Switzerland, where more and more companies are taking out insurance policies to protect their cash hoards from theft or damage.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]A UBS Group AG unit was found by a federal judge to have violated some contracts with mortgage-backed securities trusts that hold loans, putting it at risk of having to buy back more loans or pay damages in a $2 billion lawsuit. U.S. District Judge Kevin Castel Tuesday ruled that UBS Real Estate Securities Inc. had breached warranties on 13 of 20 loans in the trusts that were introduced into evidence in a three-week trial in Manhattan in May.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]The oft repeated generalization about the dominance of low paying jobs is not true for the last few years. This does note refute the disparity of wealth and income in the US. There is a restructuring taking place that favors educated and skilled workers.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Each quarter, the SECO estimates the GDP and its components. The main purpose of these estimations is to provide data that allow for an assessment of the cyclical development of the main macroeconomic aggregats in a timely adequate and credible manner.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]ISM showed unexpected weakness in Aug non-mfg PMI. Markit measure slipped but not as much as ISM. Odds of a Sept Fed hike slip to about 15%. Watch trendline in Dollar Index near 94.45.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]If asked what's intrinsic to human happiness, most people in consumer societies will offer up answers such as money, status, a nice house, etc. But as Sebastian Junger observes in his book Tribe: On Homecoming and Belonging, what's actually intrinsic to human happiness is: meaningful relationships within a community (i.e. a tribe); opportunities to contribute to the group and to be appreciated; being competent at useful tasks and opportunities for...