The ECB remains dovish, but a reassessment of its plans for exiting quantitative easing could come later this year and hikes in the deposit rate in 2018 if core inflation data improve.The European Central Bank left policy and forward guidance unchanged at today’s meeting notwithstanding the “increasingly solid” recovery and “diminished” downside risks to the outlook. Our impression is that there is a strong consensus to “finish the job” by keeping the monetary stance very accommodative until...
Read More »ECB preview — Bank has no shortage of options
Macroview While we expect no concrete action at this week’s policy meeting, we believe extension of QE is coming and bond scarcity issues will be addressed. We do not expect any new action to be announced at the ECB’s policy meeting on Thursday, but we do expect that the ECB will reiterate that the size of its asset-purchase programme and its duration are exclusively a function of the inflation outlook. We also expect that the bank will hammer home the message that it has the flexibility to...
Read More »ECB on hold, rendez-vous in September
Macroview Further policy stimulus and adjustments to its bond-buying programme remain on the agenda as the ECB strives to measure the impact of current uncertainties The ECB remained on hold at its 21 July policy meeting. The main conclusion to be drawn from the meeting was that more stimulus is on the table for September, when new staff forecasts will be available.The only unexpected bit of news was ECB chairman’s Mario Draghi’s apparent support for the idea of a public backstop for banks...
Read More »The ECB focuses on policy implementation and reaffirms its independence
Takeaways from the press conference following the ECB's policy meeting of 21 April 2016 Read the full report here The 10 March ECB meeting was all about bold action and strong signals. The main message from the 21 April meeting was one of continuity, consistency and cohesion. The ECB’s assessment of economic conditions has not changed materially in the past few weeks, with the view that existing and upcoming policy measures will help to push inflation higher over the medium-term. In the...
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