Tag Archives: David Cameron

Swiss Franc The euro-Swiss is moving back to reality, after the risk-on run in the beginning of the week. The continued yen weakening is slightly negative for the franc given that some algorithms correlate the two safe-haven currencies. Click to enlarge. United Kingdom After a nearly three weeks of turmoil following the UK referendum, there is now a sense of order returning to UK politics. Two elements of the new...

(Here is the latest monthly column I write for Caixin.  It is on Brexit and I wrote it as an email to my mother.  Here is the link.  The text follows) To: Mother Date: July 4, 2016 Subject: Re: Did you know Britain was leaving Europe? Should I worry? Glad to see you figured out how to access your email account. I smiled when I saw your note in my inbox. Thank you, though I am not sure that Thomas Watson felt the...

Shortly before I was on Bloomberg TV today, Leadsom withdrew from the Tory leadership context, leaving May, who favored remaining the EU, as the likely successor of Cameron.  Leadsom had been trailing May even before her controversial weekend comments. Sterling shot up to almost $1.3020, and as was the case last week, there appeared to be a wall of sterling sellers lurking there.  Sterling was trading below $1.29...

Swiss Franc The Non-Farm Payrolls for June were very positive, even if Marc Chandler is not totally convinced. Good job data in the United States are typically positive for both USD and EUR, because the odds of a rate hike are increasing. Consequently the EUR/CHF rose. In the last two days SNB interventions should have been smaller. The Swiss (seasonally adjusted) unemployment rate fell from 3.5% to 3.3%. Click to...

Summary Sterling has fallen to $1.3050. Two real estate funds have suspended trading (liquidation). Constitutional crisis over who has authority to trigger Article 50 may have begun. Sterling is continuing to move lower. It has tested the $1.3050 area in the North American morning, having been under pressure through the Asian session and the European morning.  That the UK economy is slowing down, materially, as...

Swiss Franc  During the weak the Swiss Franc lost momentum. It could regain speed only on June 30. The stronger Franc was initiated by remarks  by BoE governor Carney. Sterling stayed on the defensive on Friday after unambiguously dovish comments from the Bank of England abruptly ended a tentative recovery in the currency, while the euro wobbled on speculation of more stimulus in Europe. Still trying to get over...

The shock of Great Britain’s vote to leave the European Union has already thrown global financial markets into disarray and cost Prime Minister David Cameron his job, but it will take years before the geopolitical impact of the Brexit referendum fully materializes. The political uncertainty generated by the “Leave” vote will reach far beyond 10 Downing Street, potentially into Scotland, Northern Ireland, Eurozone capitals, and beyond. It may even mark the beginning of the end of...

Summary If conditions are exceptional, isn’t BOJ intervention more likely? If conditions are exceptional, the ban on European government supporting banks might not be valid. Italy is leading the charge in Europe. How exceptional are market developments? Much rests on the answer. If these are extraordinary circumstances, then Japanese intervention becomes more likely. Of course, Japanese policymakers have been...

Authored by Alastair Macdonald, originally posted at Reuters.com, Stalemate between Britain and the European Union over what happens next following Britons’ referendum vote to leave has opened up a host of possible scenarios. Here are some that are (in some cases, barely) conceivable: 1. BY THE BOOK Prime Minister David Cameron, who said he will resign after losing his gamble to end British ambivalence about...

  Winners and Quitters Vince Lombardi, the famous American football coach, once said, “Winners never quit and quitters never win.”  Maybe he meant that winners overcome obstacles to reach their goals while quitters give up and fall short… or something to that effect. Certainly, this makes for a good bumper sticker.  Perhaps it’s a helpful quote for the first time marathon runner to repeat come mile 20.  Saying it aloud...