China’s export growth disappointed in July, only we don’t really know by how much. According to that country’s Customs Bureau, exports last month were 7.2% above (in US$ terms) exports in July 2016. That’s down from 11.3% growth in June, which as usual had been taken in the mainstream as evidence of “strong” or “robust” global demand. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, however, exports in June rose by...
Read More »FX Daily, August 08: Trade Featured as Dollar Drifts Lower
Swiss Franc The euro has depreciated by 0.17 to 1.1451 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 08(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar has a slightly lower bias today, but the against most of the major currencies, it is consolidating within the range set at the end of last week. The main exceptions are sterling and the Canadian dollar. They had extended...
Read More »China Imports and Exports: The Ghost Recovery
To the naked eye, it represents progress. China has still an enormous rural population doing subsistence level farming. As the nation grows economically, such a way of life is an inherent drag, an anchor on aggregate efficiency Chinese officials would rather not put up with. Moving a quarter of a billion people into cities in an historically condensed time period calls for radical thinking, and radical doing. In one...
Read More »Questions Persist About China Trade
Chinese trade statistics were for May 2017 better than expected by economists, but on the export side questions remain as to their accuracy. Earlier this year discrepancies between estimates first published by the General Administration of Customs (GAC), those you find reported in the media, and what is captured by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), backed up by data from the Ministry of Commerce, became...
Read More »FX Daily, June 08: Thursday’s Show
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.11% to 1.0852 CHF. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, June 08(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Today has an anti-climactic feel to it. Yesterday’s leak of what is purported to be the ECB staff forecasts point to small downward revisions to inflation forecasts and an ever small upward tweak to growth. This would be in line with only mild changes in the forward...
Read More »FX Daily, May 08: Euro Bought on Rumor, Sold on Fact
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, May 08(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US Dollar Index initially fell to its lowest level since mid-November to 98.50. It rebounded but stalled in front of the pre-weekend high near 99.00. This area must be overcome to lift the tone. Sterling stretched to a marginal high but faded in front of $1.30. Initial support is seen...
Read More »What Was Chinese Trade in March?
As with all statistics, there are discrepancies that from time to time may obscure the meaning or validity of the particular estimate in question. For the vast majority of the time, any such uncertainties amount to very little. Overall, harmony among the major accounts reduces the signal noise from any one featuring a significant inconsistency. There are, of course, various economic areas where estimates are going to...
Read More »FX Daily, April 13: Greenback Stabilizes After Trump Induced Slide
Swiss Franc Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY March 2017(see more posts on Switzerland Producer Price Index, ) Source: investing.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar slid after US President Trump complained about its strength. The sell-off extended into early Asian activity, before stabilizing. It is mixed in late morning European turnover, which is already lightening up due to the extended...
Read More »FX Daily, March 08: Dollar Bid as Rates Firm
Swiss Franc Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, February 2017(see more posts on Switzerland Consumer Price Index, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The pound to Swiss Franc rate has deteriorated further in the last 24 hours as uncertainty over the Brexit and economic data for the UK weigh on the performance of the pound. I would suggest rates are going to continue to struggle for Swiss...
Read More »No China Trade Interpretations
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China does not publish any of the big three data series (Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment) for the month of January. It combines January data with February data because of the large distortions caused by Lunar New Year holidays. Unlike Western holidays that are but a single day, the Golden Week is a week, and therefore when the calendar points do not...
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