The US dollar closed today above CAD1.3500 for the first time since January 2. Despite the setback, the Canadian dollar is the strongest of the major currencies year-to-date with a little less than a one percent gain. The yen, in second, has is up about 0.2% (~JPY109.50). Among emerging market currencies, the Mexican peso’s 2.6% gain puts it in in second place behind the Russian rouble’s 7.2% appreciation. It is a...
Read More »April Monthly Currency Outlook
Poor economic data and soft inflation saw several central banks, including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, take a dovish turn in March. Contrary to expectations that interest rates would rise as the G3 central banks were no longer adding to their balance sheets on a combined basis. The sharp drop in interest rates and the flattening of curves in March is one of the key factors shaping the investment...
Read More »FX Daily, March 29: Equities Bounce While Bonds Pullback to End Q1
Swiss Franc The Euro has keep position 0.00% at 1.1194 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 29(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The global growth scare may be subsiding. It had been fanned by the ECB and Fed statements and projections. Poor US jobs growth reported in early March and the poor flash EMU PMI late in the month contributed. The slowdown in China...
Read More »FX Daily, March 28: Brexit Uncertainty Deepens as Parliament is Divided, while Turkey’s Short Squeeze Falters
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.07% at 1.1192 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The lurch lower in global interest rates continue. The US 10-year yield is at new 15-month lows, five basis points through the average effective Fed funds rate. Late yesterday, it appeared that 10-year German Bund yields slipped below...
Read More »FX Daily, March 27: Global Bond Rally Continues, Greenback Remains Firm
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.05% at 1.1194 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US 10-year yield is trading below the Fed funds target. The two-year yield is trading below the lower end of the Fed funds target range. A warning by New Zealand that the next rate move could be a cut sent New Zealand and Australian...
Read More »FX Daily, March 25: Monday Blues: Equities Pare Quarterly Gains
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.12% at 1.1231 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Global equities have soured after the US shares dropped the most since very early in the year before the weekend. Asia’s sell-off was led by the 3% decline in Nikkei, while Malaysia fared among the best, surrendering 1%. Europe’s Dow...
Read More »FOMC: Above Trend Growth Requires Continued Monetary Support
The Federal Reserve sounded more dovish than many expected and this prompted a 5-7 bp drop in US rates, and the dollar fell to new lows for the week against many of the major currencies. The median Fed forecast now anticipates no hike this year but one next year. The Fed will also taper the roll-off of its balance sheet and completing it by the end of September. In December, 11 officials anticipated two or three hikes...
Read More »FX Daily, March 22: Dreadful EMU PMI and US Machinations Rival Brexit for Attention
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.52% at 1.1221 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The S&P 500 recovered from the post-FOMC reversal to close a new 5-month high yesterday, led by technology. Financials were the only main sector to retreat. The large equity markets in Asia, Japan, China, Australia, South Korea, and...
Read More »FX Daily, March 21: Dovish Fed Sends Global Yields Lower, but Little Succor for Stocks
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.28% at 1.1293 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The dovishness of the Federal Reserve sent ripples through the capital markets. US equities reversed initial gains, but Asia Pacific equities edged higher, though Japanese markets were closed for a national holiday. European shares are...
Read More »FX Daily, March 20: Brexit Drama Continues but Fed Moves to Center Stage
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.14% at 1.1322 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: US stocks were not able to hold onto early gains yesterday, and this has helped set the stage for today’s heavier bias. Asia Pacific markets were narrowly mixed, with Japan and Korea eking out small gains while China and Taiwan slipped a...
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