Tag Archives: AUD

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Net-net, the September Fed funds futures contract was little changed on the week. Four high-income central banks meet in the week ahead; the ECB is the only one in play. China accounted for a full three quarters of the US trade deficit in July.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]The new month has begun with a couple of surprises. The biggest surprise has been the record jump in the UK manufacturing PMI to 53.3 from 48.3. A much smaller rebound was expected in August after the Brexit shock drop in July.

Swiss Franc Switzerland Trade Balance (See more posts for Switzerland Trade Balance) Click to enlarge. Source Investing.com FX Rates The US dollar is mostly little changed against the major, as befits a summer session. There are two exceptions. The first is the New Zealand dollar. Comments by the central bank’s governor played down the need for urgent monetary action and suggested that the bottom of cycle may be...

Swiss Franc: In the real effective exchange rate calculation, the PPI plays an important role. The Swiss producer price index fell by 0.8% YoY, while the German one is down 2.0%. Thismeans that in 2016 the CHF overvaluation is rising, when compared to the major Swiss trading partner Germany. The values for 2015 were -6% for the Swiss and -2.5% for Germany, the CHF overvaluation was reduced. Click to enlarge. Source...

Swiss Franc A bad day for the dollar means a good day for CHF, that appreciates against both euro and dollar. Click to enlarge. FX Rates It is not a good day for the US dollar. It is being sold across the board. The seemingly dovish FOMC minutes released late yesterday appears to have gotten the ball rolling. The takeaway for many was that any officials wanted more time to assess the data at the July meeting. The...

Swiss Franc Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar is enjoying a mid-week bounce against all the major currencies. It appears that participants in Asia and Europe are giving more credence to NY Fed Dudley’s comments yesterday. Although many in the market have given up on a rate hike this year, Dudley reaffirmed his belief that the economy was accelerating in H2 and that the market was being too complacent. Many...

Summary: The Australian dollar’s technical condition has soured. Market sentiment may be changing as the MSCI World Index of developed equities posted a key reversal yesterday. It is not clear yet whether the Aussie is correcting lower or whether there has been a trend change. Since late July, I have been looking for the Australian dollar to turn lower. Instead, the Aussie has continued to climb.  It has risen...

Swiss Franc The Swiss Franc was nearly unchanged against the euro. Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar closed the pre-weekend session well off its lows that were seen in response to the disappointing retail sales report. It has been unable to sustain the upside momentum, and as North American dealers prepare to return to their posts, it is trading lower against most of the major currencies. The notable...

Summary: The GDP deflator may be just as important as overall growth for BOJ considerations and the possibility of fresh action next month. Falling UK rates and a weaker pound are desirable from a policy point of view. Dudley’s press conference may be more important than FOMC minutes. Two German state elections that will be held next month comes as Merkel’s popularity has waned. Japan Japan’s Q2 GDP: The...

Swiss Franc The weak U.S. Retail Sales report let the euro improve against the dollar. We would have expected a stronger franc, given that the German growth was stronger (see more on the relationship between the German economy and CHF). Some technical movement after yesterday’s strong fall of EUR/CHF may have prevented that. Click to enlarge. United States There is a general consolidative tone in the capital...