Tag Archives: 4) FX Trends

Overview: The dollar has returned from the weekend with a better bid tone. It is firmer against all the G10 currencies but the yen, Swiss franc, and Swedish krona, which are marginally firmer. The market seems reluctant to extend the euro or Canadian dollar upticks ahead of the central bank meetings this week, though, ironically, sterling’s 0.25% decline leads the major currencies. Election news is a key driver today. A dramatic victory for the Morena party in...

There are two forces that shape the investment climate: politics and economics, and they are both at the fore in the coming weeks.Among the highlights will be the European Central Bank meeting that will mostly likely begin its easing cycle. The Bank of Canada is a close call. If it does not cut rates in June, it will probably do so in July. The Swiss National Bank may deliver its second hike in the cycle, while the Bank of England will likely continue to prepare the...

Overview: The dollar is mostly consolidating yesterday's losses ahead of month-end and the US income and consumption data. The PCE core deflator may have risen by 0.2%, the least this, year, but the year-over-year rate is expected to be steady at 2.8%. The dollar is recovering from a five-day low against the yen recorded yesterday near JPY156.40 and is near JPY157.30 in the late European morning turnover. The yen's retreat and a disappointing Chinese PMI have...

Overview: The dollar initially extended yesterday's North American recovery but unwound most of the gains in the European morning. As North American dealers return, the greenback is lower against most of the G10 currencies. After approaching levels believed to have been where the BOJ last intervened, profit-taking pushed the dollar back to a marginal new low for the week (~JPY156.55). The yen's recovery arguably helped the Chinese yuan rise for the first time since...

Overview: Stocks and bonds are lower today, and the dollar is slightly firmer having extended yesterday's recovery. Most of the G10 currencies are lower, though the Japanese yen has recovered from after falling to its lowest level since May 1. Slightly softer than expected German states' CPI did the euro no favors. It was sold to a three-day low near $1.0830 before stabilizing. Sterling steadied after dipping briefly below $1.2750. Most emerging market currencies...

Overview: The dollar initially extended its pre-weekend and yesterday's heavier tone before finding a better bid in the European morning. Still, as North American dealers return to their posts the dollar is still mostly softer against the G10 currencies, but it is little changed to slightly firmer against the Japanese yen. Most emerging market currencies are firmer, but the South African rand is softer ahead of their election, the Mexican peso is paring its recent...

FX:  The dollar traded mostly higher last week.  I suspect more near-term gains, but I am less convinced than I was a week ago.  Given the FOMC minutes and more recent commentary from Fed officials, I suspect the market is exaggerating the chances of two cuts this year.  That had been my leaning too, but I think the recent resilience of the labor market and sticky inflation has shifted the views at the Fed.  The futures market is...

Stronger than expected data and hawkish FOMC minutes helped lift US rates and the greenback last week. That market continues to also reduce the extend of ECB easing this year is notable but did not prevent the euro from snapping a five-week advance. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose above 1% last week for the first time since 2012, but the US dollar traded above JPY157 for the first time since the BOJ is believed to have intervened earlier this month....

Overview: The dollar is paring yesterday's advance that was spurred by the rise in US rates following the preliminary PMI, which reached its best level in two years. The survey also picked up higher prices. The dollar is in narrow trading ranges but softer against nearly all the G10 currencies today. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen are laggards. Despite a large disappointing miss on UK retail sales, sterling has steadied after falling yesterday for the first time...

Overview:  The dollar was aided yesterday by the hawkish FOMC minutes and the backing up of US rates. The greenback has stabilized today and is softer against all the G10 currencies. The stronger eurozone PMI masks divergence between Germany and France but keeps the recovery narrative intact. The dollar's broad gains pressured the yuan, and the PBOC's dollar reference rate was set at its highest since January. Favorable guidance by Nvidia is helping lift US index...