SNB & CHF

The fact that German retail sales crashed so much in April 2022 is significant for a couple reasons. First, it more than suggests something is wrong with Germany, and not just some run-of-the-mill hiccup. Second, because it was this April rather than last April or last summer, you can’t blame COVID this time. Something else is going on. . In America, the Fed Cult is out to take credit for this brewing downturn (Jay Powell seeking his place alongside Volcker, which...

The current baby formula shortage in the United States is a pressing crisis, and many in the media have been rushing to explain how such a thing could have happened. But on close analysis, it appears to share the same root as virtually every other crisis experienced in the modern world: a government promised benefits without costs. Our political leaders either fail to understand or outright ignore the basic, unavoidable limitation on government action, that no...

The divergent performances make it challenging to talk about the G10 currencies last week. The Canadian dollar led the advancing major currencies with a 1.2% gain last week. It and the Australian dollar rose above last month's highs. On the other side was the Japanese yen. The more than 20 bp backing up of the US 10-year yield, the biggest weekly advance in two months, lifted the dollar by more than 2.8% against the yen. That is the biggest weekly gain since March...

One of my areas of research in institutional economics is the social behavior of people under different political regimes, what Thomas Schelling called micromotives and macrobehavior. Of course, this topic is directly related to many disciplines, from behavioral economics and political theory to the neurobiology of decision-making and the theory of biological markets. The theme raises the following question: What are the reasons for the broad social support of the...

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday increased its policy interest rate (known as the overnight target rate) from 1.0 percent to 1.5 percent. This was the second fifty–basis point increase since April and is the third target rate increase since March of this year. Canada’s target rate had been flat at 0.25 percent for twenty-three months following the bank’s slashing of the target rate beginning in March 2020. As in the United States and in Europe, price inflation rates...

It’s a broken a record, the macro stylus stuck unable to move on, just skipping and repeating the same spot on the vinyl. Since Xi Jinping’s lockdowns broke it, as it’s said, when Xi is satisfied there’s zero COVID he’ll release the restrictions and that will fix everything. The economy will go right back to good, like flipping a switch. Where have we heard that before? Everywhere, actually, but especially in China. Whether early last year, last August, and now again...

Swiss industrial firm Oerlikon has announced that it will hand over ownership of its business in Russia to local management. In a brief statementExternal link released on Thursday, the Oerlikon Group said it had entered into an agreement with the local management team to sell all its operations in Russia. “The business will continue to operate independently under the new owners,” said the company. On March 4, the Swiss firm ceased all international cross-border...

Der NFT-Markt bleibt unberechenbar. Inwieweit der Preis eines Non-Fungible Token wirklich durch seinen Wert definiert wird, bleibt hingegen ein Geheimnis. In dieser Woche zeigte der Gerichtsprozess zwischen Johnny Depp und Amber Heard wieder einmal, wie NTF-Preise unberechenbar steigen und fallen können. Crypto News: Johnny Depp NFTs erleben Rallye nach GerichtsprozessIn den letzten Wochen ging der Prozess zwischen Johnny Depp und seiner Ex-Ehefrau um die Welt. Zu...

It’s easier to make lofty pledges about saving the world when the world isn’t battling multiple crises. The World Economic Forum’s programme last week included the word “crisis” 42 times. Throughout the four-day event, “crisis” was uttered on panels on climate change, in interviews on the war in Ukraine, and in conversations on food shortages held around lavish buffet tables. There’s no denying that the world is gripped by multiple crises. There’s also no denying...

It’s gotten to the point that pretty much everyone is now aware of the risks. Public surveys, market behavior, on and on, hardly anyone outside politics thinks the economy is in a good place. Gasoline, sentiment, whatever, Euro$ #5 in total is much more than what’s shaping up inside the American boundary. Globally synchronized of which the US is proving to be a close part. The destination, or depth, really, is what’s left to argue. As noted yesterday, even President...