SNB & CHF

Interview with Laurent Halmos For most die-hard physical gold investors and students of history like myself and most of my readers and clients, technical analysis is often seen as a bit of a taboo, or at best something irrelevant to our worldview and investment approach. Nevertheless, to paraphrase the old saying about politics, just because you are not interested in the charts doesn’t mean that the charts are not interested in you.  I met Laurent...

Overview:  After large moves yesterday, the capital markets ae quieter today. Stocks are mostly firmer, and the 10-year US yield is a little softer near 3.62%. Strong nominal wage increases in Japan and a hawkish hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia helped their respectively currencies recover, though remain within yesterday's ranges. The euro briefly traded below $1.07, and sterling has been sold through $1.20. That said, a consolidative tone is the main feature...

Livia Leu, Switzerland's chief negotiator with the European Union, has been talking about the challenges ahead in 2023, especially when it comes to the free movement of people. For about 20 years, Switzerland has regulated its relations with the EU in bilateral agreements, an alternative to EU membership that it would like to maintain. But the rules governing EU market access have now changed so the bilaterals need updating. The EU and Switzerland are discussing how to package their...

With its second federal constitution of 1874, Switzerland was suddenly catapulted to the forefront of democracy development worldwide. No canton had voted so strongly in favour of radical change as Schaffhausen. Adopting the new federal constitution marked a milestone in Swiss history. It brought about several important improvements, making up for just about everything the original constitution lacked. Many of these improvements would not have happened without what became known as the...

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) booked a CHF132 billion ($143 billion) loss in 2022 and suspended profit-sharing transfers to the Confederation and cantons. What does that mean exactly? And how does the SNB fare in international comparison? Last year, the SNB lost more money than ever before. And it is not alone: central banks around the world also recorded heavy losses. As a consequence, money from central banks in many countries ceased to flow to governments. Have...

Every so often, I check my investment portfolio to see how it is doing. (I stay out of stocks these days, but that is due to my personal situation and is not to be taken as investment advice.) Portfolios are collections of various financial instruments that one is holding, and one always hopes that their value will head in the right direction over time. When I purchase a financial instrument, I do so because I hope it will perform well in the future. I certainly do...

Lacking a solid team is a recipe for organizational failure, and those intending to excel in business—or any other sector—must invest in management. Considering that many professional athletes encounter bankruptcy shortly after retiring, they are a demographic that could greatly benefit from quality financial management teams. Elite athletes earn millions of dollars during a short time, but few succeed at multiplying their earnings to create wealth. An investigation...

Your cares and troubles are gone There’ll be no more from now on! Happy days are here again! The skies above are clear again Let us sing a song of cheer again Happy days are here again! Lyrics: Jack Yellen, Music: Milton Ager That’s certainly how it’s felt since the turn of the new year with the NASDAQ up nearly 15%, European stocks continuing to recover, emerging markets anticipating a Chinese recovery and a solid January for the S&P 500. Bonds have been...

Even after Friday's "stellar" payrolls in the US, markets worldwide cling to extreme levels of inversion which means radical pessimism. But why? If there is a worst case set of scenarios, these are what they would be. It's not necessarily a crash, but what more likely what comes after. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Stock & Watson; Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? https://www.nber.org/papers/w9127 Bernanke; The Great Moderation...

Overview: The honeymoon for risk assets that began the year ended with a bang at the end of last week with the monster US jobs report and the rebound in the service ISM. Disappointing news from several large US tech companies provided extra encouragement. The yen's weakness helped Japanese stocks today, but the other larger bourses in the Asia Pacific area were sold, with losses in Hong Kong, the CSI 300, South Korea, and Taiwan off more than 1%. Europe's Stoxx 600...