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SNB & CHF

Week Ahead: US Debt Ceiling Drama Continues and the Dollar’s Two-Week Rally Stalls

Mostly stronger than expected economic data, hawkish rhetoric by several Fed officials, some signs of progress on the perverse drama over the debt ceiling, and a solid week for bank shares helped the dollar extend its recent recovery. The greenback rose to new highs for the year against the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan. The euro took out April's low (~$1.0790) and sterling traded briefly below $1.24. The US two-year note yield takes a six-session rally into the...

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Dividing the Housing Market

In this week's episode, Mark explains why the market for existing homes has been diverging from the market for new houses. The Fed ZIRP, QE and Covid bailouts have locked Americans into their mortgages and low payments, reducing the supply of existing homes. This keeps them off the market and home prices high in an economy that is headed for a recession or crisis. Buyers have been diverted to newly constructed homes where builders have more flexibility to sell and...

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Rothbard: Essentials of Money and Inflation

Money is a crucial command post of any economy, and therefore of any society. Society rests upon a network of voluntary exchanges, also known as the “free-market economy”; these exchanges imply a division of labor in society, in which producers of eggs, nails, horses, lumber, and immaterial services such as teaching, medical care, and concerts, exchange their goods for the goods of others. At each step of the way, every participant in exchange benefits immeasurably,...

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The Five Stages of Bank Failure Grief

The talking heads on financial TV ask everyday where we are in the banking crisis. Is it over yet? After scooping up First Republic, JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon said, “This part of the crisis is over.” After he said that, however, the shares of regional banks such as PacWest, Zions, and Western Alliance were cut in half. The market doesn’t believe Mr. Dimon. Elisabeth Kübler-Ross described five stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. ‎On...

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Crowding Out: The Fed May Be Killing the Private Sector to Save the Government

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reached its all-time high in May 2022. Since then, it was supposed to drop at a steady pace and shed three trillion US dollars by 2024. The normalization of monetary policy was built on the idea of a soft landing for the economy. However, the Fed may be killing the private sector to save the government. Curbing inflation requires a significant reduction in the money supply and aggregate demand. However, if government deficit...

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Thanks to Sanctions, The US Is Losing Its Grip on the Middle East

On Friday, members of the Arab League welcomed the Syrian regime back to the organization. Representatives from several Arab member states shook Syrian leader Assad's hand and gave him, a "warm" reception according to several news outlets. Syria was suspended from the league in 2011, but on May 7 in Cairo the league agreed to reinstate the Assad regime.  This represents a reversal from years of isolation placed on the regime, and a break with US policy which remains...

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Government Redistribution Is the REAL Trickle-Down Economics

On April 6, 2023, President Joe Biden’s Twitter account sent the following message: “Trickle-down economics doesn’t work.” Trickle-down economics is a phrase that is often thrown around negatively to ridicule those who believe that the free-market system is the best way to regulate the economy. “Trickle-down theory” was never coined by economists, and the term has two possible origins, both of which were meant to discredit those who wanted less government involvement...

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There’s No Place like Noam

Illegitimate Authority: Facing the Challenges of Our Timeby Noam Chomsky, edited by C.J. PolychroniouHaymarket Books, 2023; x + 330 pp. Noam Chomsky is universally respected for his contributions to linguistics and to the philosophy of mind, but he is a “public intellectual” as well, and it is in the public arena that opinion about him is divided. Illegitimate Authority is a collection of thirty-four interviews of him by C.J. Polychroniou, the book’s editor, and the...

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