SNB & CHF

The recent dollar gyrations seem tightly linked to US rates. The FOMC meeting and October jobs report saw the two-year Treasury yield drop 17 bp and the dollar was taken broadly lower. Indeed, against several currency pairs, it approached three standard deviations below its 20-day moving average. What seemed like a mild adjustment to the over-extended technical development turned into a rout after a weak reception to the US 30-year bond auction to finish the...

On this week's episode, Mark looks at the financial condition of the government and of American citizens on the cusp of the next recession. The financial condition of the United States Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the American citizenry is weak; debt is high and rising, and this is very worrisome in an economic environment of rising interest rates and a weakening global economy. Please share this episode with a curmudgeon. The U.S. Debt Clock: USDebtClock.org...

My grandfather used to sing to me, “Good, better, best / never let them rest / till the good is better / and the better is best.” I appreciated that lesson and have been applying it to try to make sense of a recent bill signed by California governor Gavin Newsom. While the bill may be the result of Newsom’s grandfather singing to him about “bad, worse, and worst,” I have determined it is more likely a case of bad/worse/worst economic thinking. It exposes a level of...

Sovereign debt is eating the world. Lining up a financial crash that could make 2008 look like a picnic. How did we get here? In short, governments and central banks deluded themselves into thinking that unlimited deficit spending financed by unlimited money printing won't do what they've done for literally millennia -- plunge the economy into stagflation. They are, of course, wrong. And we're seeing the catastrophe unfold before our eyes. From Nixon to $33 Trillion...

The eurozone economy is more than weak. It is in deep contraction, and the data is staggering. The eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell to a three-month low of 43.1 in October, the sixteenth consecutive month of contraction. However, European analysts tend to ignore the manufacturing decline using the excuse that the services sector is larger and stronger than expected, but it is not. The eurozone Composite PMI is...

Mises' work explains how laissez-faire economies have incentives to be peaceful with each other, and how, inversely, tariffs and protectionism create isolation, instability, and war. His words are especially prescient today as conflicts rage and tensions between superpowers continue to rise—mirroring the rise in state power across the globe. Dr. Jonathan Newman joins Bob to break down the history of warfare, how states fund war, and why war is more destructive in the...

There’s a growing palpable sense of optimism among many economists and journalists that the United States economy is heading toward a growth phase while avoiding recession. They are in turn lauding the Federal Reserve for its strategic handling of inflation—with economic growth and low unemployment rates—as well as praising the efficacy of the Biden administration in reining in prices through social pressure on profit-making and through increases in production via...

As the Biden administration ramps up new government spending—and budget deficits—to unheard-of peacetime levels, reality sets in. No economy and no currency can withstand this explosive assault for very long. Original Article: The Dollar See-Saws between Two Views on Fiscal Explosion [embedded content] Tags:...

The Great Money Bubble: Protect Yourself from the Coming Inflation Stormby David A. StockmanHumanix Books, 2022; 229 pp. David Stockman served for a short while as budget director during Ronald Reagan’s first term as president, but he soon resigned owing to Reagan’s refusal to cut government spending. He has since that time worked as a private investment adviser, at which difficult profession he has been highly successful, and he has written a number of books, among...

Recorded at the Mises Circle in Fort Myers, Florida, 4 November 2023. Special thanks to Murray and Florence M. Sabrin for making this event possible. Read Bob's book Understanding Money Mechanics: Mises.org/Mechanics The Fed and the Fate of the Dollar | Bob Murphy Video of The Fed and the Fate of the Dollar | Bob Murphy [embedded content]...