Tag Archives: USD

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 10 2016(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar has started the new week on a firm note. The light news stream and holidays in Japan, Canada and the United States make for a subdued session. Notable exceptions to the dollar’s gains are the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso. Both currencies appear to have been. underpinned by US...

High frequency economic reports will be not be among the key drivers of the capital markets in the week ahead. The light schedule, consisting mostly of industrial production in Europe, inflation for Scandinavia, and US retail sales, will have minimal impact on rate expectations. A November rate Fed move was never very likely. The September employment report needed to be amazingly strong to boost the chances, and it was...

Summary: The US premium over Germany is at its widest since 2006. This is despite a small reduction in odds of a hike in December. There are many forces are work, but over time, the widening differential will likely give the dollar better traction. This Great Graphic from Bloomberg shows two time series. The white line is the spread between the German two-year interest rate and the US two-year yield. The...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 07 2016. - Click to enlarge FX Rates Sterling again steals the limelight. In early Asia, sterling inexplicably dropped nearly eight cents in minutes (to ~$1840), and on some platforms, may have traded below $1.1380. It almost immediately rebounded but has not resurfaced above $1.2480. Over the last couple of years,there have been a number of sudden dramatic moves...

United States The US grew 156k jobs in August, missing the median estimate by about 16k. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, September 7(see more posts on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, ). Unemployment Rate The July series was revised up by 16k. The unemployment and participate rate ticked up 0.1% to 5.0%… U.S. Unemployment Rate, September 2016(see more posts on U.S. unemployment rate, ). Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 06 2016. - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is advancing against the major and most emerging market currencies. Activity is subdued and ranges are narrow. We share four observations about the price action. First, the euro has been unable to sustain upticks even after Germany reported a jump in industrial orders three-times more than the median estimate (1.0%...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 05 2016. Federal Reserve While the markets can be an incredibly efficient discounting mechanism, it sometimes is also an echo chamber. What began off as a Bloomberg report indicated that there was an agreement at the ECB that when it decided to end its asset purchases, it would gradually taper back rather than come to a fast stop, by the end of the day, it had...

Swiss Franc The EUR/CHF has soared again. Later during the day, it has even achieved 1.0970. EUR-CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 04 2016. - Click to enlarge Federal Reserve UK Prime Minister May’s comments at the Tory Party Conference over the weekend played up the risk of what has been dubbed a hard Brexit and triggered a slide in sterling saw it fall to new 30-year+ low against the dollar just below $1.2760. A...

Summary: The dollar is taking out a several month downtrend against the yen. The correlation between the yen and the S&P 500 has broken down. The US 2-year premium over Japan has steadily risen. One of the big stories in the foreign exchange market this year has been the strength of the Japanese yen. It is up 17.3% so far this year, despite negative interest rates through 10-years and among the worst...

Swiss Franc The EUR/CHF has soared again. Later during the day, it has even achieved 1.0970. EUR-CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 04 2016. - Click to enlarge Federal Reserve UK Prime Minister May’s comments at the Tory Party Conference over the weekend played up the risk of what has been dubbed a hard Brexit and triggered a slide in sterling saw it fall to new 30-year+ low against the dollar just below $1.2760. A...