Tag Archives: U.K.

In Volcker’s days, when he used money supply to justify tightening monetary policy despite high unemployment, the money supply was released while markets were open, and it was The report. Later, by the mid-1980s, leading up to the Plaza Agreement, the deterioration of the US monthly trade balance was critical. It became The report. For several years now, the monthly jobs report superseded it. It is the first hard data for a new month and often sets the tone for the...

Overview: Asia Pacific bourses followed yesterday’s US loss, but after opening lower Europe’s Stoxx 600 has steadied. US futures are narrowly mixed ahead of the US jobs report. Benchmark 10-year yields are higher across the board. The US 10-year Treasury yield is near 3.84%, slightly higher on the day. It is up a single basis point on the week. European yields are 3-5 bp higher. The dollar is softer against the G10 currencies, but as we note below, the intraday...

Overview:  The markets seem to lack conviction today. Stocks in the Asian Pacific region advanced. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is giving up its earlier advance, and US futures are heavier. Australian and New Zealand bonds played catch-up after the rise in the US and Europe yesterday. Their benchmark yield rose 14 bp and 10 bp, respectively. The US 10-year Treasury yield is firm near 3.77%, while European bonds are narrowly mixed, though Gilts are under pressure. The 10-year...

Overview: Hopes that the global tightening cycle is entering its last phase supplied the fodder for a continued dramatic rally in equities and bonds. The euro traded at par for the first time in two weeks, while sterling reached almost $1.1490, its highest since September 15. The US 10-year yield has fallen by 45 bp in the past five sessions. Yet, the scar tissue from the last bear market rally is still fresh and US equity futures are lower after the S&P 500 had...

Overview: The big bond and stock market seen yesterday has continued today. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s reversion to a quarter-point hike stokes hope that the aggressive tightening cycle more broadly is set to slow. The UN’s Conference on Trade and Development became the latest to warn that the synchronized tightening risks a global recession and a prolonged period of stagnation. The large equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rose 2.0%-3.75%.  Europe’s Stoxx...

Overview: The markets begin October with some trepidation.  Rumors continue to circulate about the health of a large European bank, cross currency swaps are elevated, suggest dollars are more difficult to access.  The S&P 500 settled on new lows for the year at the end of last week.  China and South Korea on closed for national holidays. Chinese market will not open until next week, and Hong Kong markets are closed tomorrow.  While the Nikkei advanced, the other...

The market has much to digest. The Bank of England's new purchases of Gilts coincided with a reassessment of the trajectory of Fed policy. After the hawkish FOMC decision and forecasts, the market briefly thought the terminal rate could be 5.25-5.50% in the middle of next year. However, by the end of last week, it had returned to around 4.5% at the end of Q1 23. Italy has a right-wing government, and what it means for the country's debt and relationship with the EU...

Overview: Benchmark 10-year yields are off 6-8 basis points in Europe and the United States. The panic seen at the start of the week in the UK has subsided considerably, as sterling recovered to almost where it was a week ago, while BOE’s hand has help steady the Gilt market. Equities in Asia Pacific suffered after the losses in the US yesterday. Hong Kong and India were notable exceptions. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is recouping around half of yesterday 1.65% fall, while...

(Business travel will prevent me from updating the blog for the next couple of days.  Thank you for your patience.  Good luck.) Overview: After extending last week’s moves yesterday, the capital markets are mostly calmer today. Sterling is firmer, as are UK Gilts. The dollar is mostly consolidating inside yesterday’s range. Equities are stable to higher. Most of the large markets in the Asia Pacific region, but India edged higher, led by a 1.45% gain in China’s CSI...

Overview: Sterling’s pounding continued in Asia where it was driven to $1.0350, a new record low before stabilizing. UK rates also continued to rise sharply after the new government promised more tax cuts next year. The right-wing victory in Italy was not surprising but it kept pressure on Italian bonds. China took more action to slow the yuan’s descent The dollar is broadly higher. All the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies are lower. Risk appetites...