Tag Archives: stagnation

Japan is hot, really hot. Stocks are up to level not seen since 1996 (Nikkei 225). Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called snap elections in Parliament to secure a supermajority and it worked. Things seem to be sparkling all over the place, with the arrow pointing up: “Hopes for a global economic recovery and US shares’ strength are making fund managers generous on Japanese stocks,” said Chihiro Ohta, general manager of...

The stock market has its earnings season, the regular quarterly reports of all the companies that have publicly traded stocks. In economic accounts, there is something similar though it only happens once a year. It is benchmark revision season, and it has been brought to a few important accounts already. Given that this is a backward looking exercise, that this season is likely to produce more downward revisions...

As we move further into 2017, economic statistics will be subject to their annual benchmark revisions. High frequency data such as any accounts published on or about a single month is estimated using incomplete data. It’s just the nature of the process. Over time, more comprehensive survey results as well as upgrades to statistical processes make it necessary for these kinds of revisions. There is, obviously, great...

Published: 16th December 2015 Download issue: A case of lacklustre Goldilocks The coming year can just about be described as a ‘Goldilocks’ environment (not too hot, not too cold), but not a very appealing one. It is likely to be characterised by weak inflation, an absence of momentum in economic growth, concerns about the effectiveness of monetary policy, ongoing weakness in emerging markets, and periods of elevated volatility in financial markets. This scenario for 2016, as outlined in...