Overview: The dollar is mostly softer today, but largely within the recent ranges, as the market appears to be waiting for tomorrow's US CPI. There are a few exceptions to note. The yen is trading near its recent lows. A less hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand has triggered a sell-off of the local dollar. Softer than expected Norwegian inflation has knocked the krone lower. Most emerging market currencies are firmer, with several Asia Pacific currencies bucking the...
Read More »Bank Stress Hobbles the Dollar, while Dissents Make the 50 bp Hike by Sweden less than Hawkish
Overview: The re-emergence of bank stress reverberated through the US markets yesterday, downgrading the perceived chances of a Fed hike next week and sending the US 2-year yield sharply lower. The yield settled 13 bp lower, the largest drop in three weeks. The risk-off sent the US dollar higher against most of the major and emerging market currencies. Follow-through US dollar gains today has been mostly limited to the Australian dollar, where after today's CPI...
Read More »Market Hears Dovish Fed Hike and Sells Dollars
Overview: The dollar remains under pressure following the Federal Reserve's rate hike. The market thinks it heard that the Fed was done hiking, even though Fed Chair Powell held out the possibility that "some additional firming may be necessary." The Norwegian krone is the strongest of the G10 currencies today, up more than 1%, spurred by a 25 bp hike and a commitment to do more. The Dollar Index briefly traded below 102.00 for the first time since February 3. A...
Read More »Fed Minutes were Not as Dovish as Initially Read
Overview: The sell-off in European bonds continues today. The 10-year German Bund yield is around four basis points higher to bring the three-day increase to about 22 bp. The Italian premium over Germany has risen by almost 18 bp over these three sessions. Its two-year premium is widening for the fifth consecutive session and is above 90 bp for the first time in almost three weeks. The 10-year US Treasury yield is a little softer near 2.88%. Most of the large Asia...
Read More »China Disappoints and Surprises with Rate Cut
Overview: Equities were mostly higher in the Asia Pacific region, though Chinese and Hong Kong markets eased, and South Korea and India were closed for national holidays. Despite new Chinese exercises off the coast of Taiwan following another US congressional visit, Taiwan’s Taiex gained almost 0.85%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is advancing for the fourth consecutive session, while US futures are paring the pre-weekend rally. Following disappointing data and a surprise cut...
Read More »The Dollar Jumps and the Euro Slips under $1.03
Overview: The dollar is soaring today, and the euro is trading at new 22-year lows having traded below $1.03. Even a 50 bp hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia has failed to prevent a sharp drop in the Australian dollar. The session seemed to have begun off well enough. Japan, South Korean, Taiwan, Australian, and Indian shares advanced in the Asia Pacific region. Europe’s Stoxx 600 began off firmly, but quickly unwound yesterday’s 0.55% gain. US futures are...
Read More »Risk Appetites are Fickle
Overview: Yesterday’s strong US equity gains failed to carry over into today’s session. Japanese and Australian shares fared the best among the large Asia Pacific market, with the Nikkei off less than 0.4% and the ASX off less than 0.25%. However, China’s markets were off more than 1%, while Taiwan and South Korea indices slumped more than 2%. India is off nearly 1.5%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is down 1.5% and is giving back all of its gains in the past three sessions. US...
Read More »Taper, No Tantrum
Overview: The market's reaction to the FOMC statement was going according to our script, with the dollar backing off on a buy rumor sell the fact type of activity until Powell provided an end date for the tapering (mid-2022) before providing a start date (maybe next month). This spurred a dollar rally. Equities pulled back but recovered. The dollar is paring its gains today. It is lower against the other major currencies, but the yen, and the euro, which had...
Read More »Is it Really all about US CPI?
Overview: The markets are in a wait-and-see mode, it appears, ahead of the US CPI figures, as it absorbs bond supply from Europe and monitors the potential restructuring of China’s Evergrande. A new storm may hit US oil and gas in the Gulf before recovering from the past storm and helping to underpin prices. China and Hong Kong led the decliners in the mixed Asia Pacific session that saw the Nikkei post its highest close since 1990. South Korea, Taiwan, and Indian...
Read More »FX Daily, July 07: Dollar Stabilizes at Elevated Levels After Surging Yesterday
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.03% to 1.0922 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 07(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The dollar has steadied after surging yesterday and has so far retained the lion’s share of its gains, though it remains lower against most major currencies today. The dollar-bloc and Norwegian krone are the best performers while the yen is underperforming. The freely accessible...
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