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Tag Archives: newslettersent

FX Daily, September 23: It is Friday and the Dollar is Firmer Again

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF, September 23, 2016Click to enlarge. FX Rates As Nassim Taleb instructed, we should not be fooled by randomness. If you see six red results in a row at a roulette table, do not conclude the game is rigged. If you flip a coin, and it is tails six consecutive times, the contest is not necessarily rigged. Today has the making of the sixth consecutive Friday that the dollar gains against the euro...

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Weekend Reading: Another Fed Stick Save, An Even Bigger Bubble

As I noted on Thursday, the Fed non-announcement gave the bulls a reason to charge back into the markets as “accommodative monetary policy” is once again extended through the end of the year. Of course, it is not surprising the Fed once again failed to take action as their expectations for economic growth were once again lowered. Simply, with an economy failing to gain traction there is little ability for the Fed to...

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What If We’re in a Depression But Don’t Know It?

If it isn’t a Depression, it’s a very close relative of a Depression. Just for the sake of argument, let’s ask: what if we’re in a Depression but don’t know it? How could we possibly be in a Depression and not know it, you ask? Well, there are several ways we could be in a Depression and not know it: 1. The official statistics for “growth” (GDP), inflation, unemployment, and household income/ wealth have been...

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World markets rally as cheap money policy continues

SMI The Swiss Market Index is set to finish the week notably higher, although under-performing global stocks amid optimism that central banks will continue to support equities by keeping interest rates at historic lows and providing markets with additional liquidity. Click to enlarge. Economic Data Global equities experienced a “relief rally” after crucial central bank policy meetings in Japan and the US indicated...

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FX Daily, September 22: Swiss Franc Strongest Currency Again

Swiss Franc Once again the Swiss Franc was the strongest. The EUR/CHF depreciated to 1.0875. As said yesterday, the reasons: the Fed and the strong Swiss trade balance. Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar has lost another 0.5% against most of the major currencies today, as Asia and Europe respond to the Fed’s decision. There are few exceptions to this generalization. The Norwegian krone has gained nearly...

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Why the Coming Wave of Defaults Will Be Devastating

Without the stimulus of ever-rising credit, the global economy craters in a self-reinforcing cycle of defaults, deleveraging and collapsing debt-based consumption. In an economy based on borrowing, i.e. credit a.k.a. debt, loan defaults and deleveraging (reducing leverage and debt loads) matter. Consider this chart of total credit in the U.S. Note that the relatively tiny decline in total credit in 2008 caused by...

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Julius Baer CEO says Asia revenue may excede Europe’s in 5 years

Julius Baer Group Ltd. said Asia may overtake Europe as its biggest revenue-generating region, as the Swiss wealth manager steps up hiring in Hong Kong and Singapore. “In the next five years, Asia could be the biggest region for us if we grow at double-digit” rates, Chief Executive Officer Boris Collardi said Wednesday in an interview in Singapore. More than half of about 200 new bankers that Julius Baer plans to hire...

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Swiss still the world’s wealthiest, says report

Largely due to a flood of central bank liquidity, global private financial assets have grown by 61% over the seven years since the financial crisis, almost twice the growth rate of economic output, says a report from the German Insurance giant Allianz. This has boosted the wealth of those who own shares. Those relying on interest, on the other hand have seen their wealth stagnate. The report goes on to say “after seven...

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Silver Rocket and Gold Moribund

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Interest Rate Convulsions The prices of both metals were down again this week. We would guess that it has something to do with the fact that everyone knows: higher rates are coming to the dollar. The yield on the 10-year Treasury closed the previous week at 1.762% and this week at 1.701%. It may not look like much, but...

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