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Rarely are officials able to achieve the proverbial economic soft-landing when higher interest rates help cool price pressures without triggering a significant rise in unemployment or a contraction. Yet, without declaring victory, the Federal Reserve's confidence that this will be achieved has risen. Still, its increased confidence is unlikely to lead to a rate cut this month. To appreciate where things stand begins with recognizing that what has characterized the...

In Nations by Consent Murray Rothbard draws an important distinction between the nation and the state. While he regards the state as predatory, exploitative, parasitic and criminal, he does not view nations formed by consent as coterminous with the state. In his view the concept of the nation and the aspiration to form nations by consent reflect “subjective feelings of nationality based on objective realities” of time and place into which people are born. Rothbard...

There is a grand economic fable that has been unfolding over the past two decades, one filled with mythical creatures and great fantasy. The main character of this fable is the grand wizard of the markets, the Federal Reserve.Like all great fables, it starts with magic. Over the last twenty years, the grand wizard of the markets magically created over $7 trillion dollars by cheating time through the spell of negative real interest rates. This magic fueled the...

The main central banks have been deliberating on the concept of introducing a digital currency. However, many citizens fail to grasp the rationale behind it when the majority of transactions in major global currencies are carried out electronically. Nevertheless, a central bank digital currency is much more than electronic money. I will explain why.Central banks are raising interest rates and enacting restrictive monetary policies as quickly as governmental...

As Austrian Business Cycle Theory explains, big-ticket capital expenditures are heaving influenced by interest rates, as we discussed here.Since housing is a big-ticket capital expenditure, demand for housing is strongly influenced by interest rates, which makes it an excellent leading indicator of the business cycle. The weakness we are seeing in housing now is one key reason I expect a major recession to likely start this year.The Fed Caused Housing Bubble 1.0The...

The Federal Reserve Board is responsible for formulating macro stabilization policy. More specifically, the Federal Reserve Board seeks tradeoffs between inflation and unemployment rates. Fed officials need meaningful data to formulate useful policies. Data on the unemployment rate that coincides with zero inflation provides a starting point for policy formulation. Fed officials also need data on the rate at which inflation reduces unemployment rates. Finally, data...

Among the most persistent of myths in the sphere of economics is of the supposed benefits of government spending in the economy. Apologists will include government spending in gross domestic product measures, as if government production is truly “productive.” A common argument in favor of government spending is national defense spending.US senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) declared on Twitter that he would be voting against a defense package that would send further...

In 2024 the Australian senate is establishing an inquiry into Coles and Woolworths, the two biggest grocery retailers in the country. These two retailers hold a market share of two-thirds of the retail grocery market in Australia.This follows sharp rises in government spending, inflation, consumer prices, and lending rates following the Covid crisis. Instead of addressing inflation-fueled spending, governments have chosen grocery retailers as the bad guy to blame for...

Market participants started the year with aggressive expectations of rapid and large rate cuts. However, after the latest inflation, growth, and job figures, the probability of a rate cut in March has fallen from 39 to 24%. Unfortunately for many, headline figures will support a hawkish Federal Reserve, and the latest comments from Jerome Powell suggest rate cuts may not come as fast as bond investors would like.For the Federal Reserve, the headline macro figures...