Tag Archives: newsletter

The British historian Lord Acton famously said that "power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely."  The American response is a system of checks and balances.    The Federal Reserve represents a concentration of power that  became abundantly clear during and after the Great Financial Crisis.   The Federal Reserve is a creation of the legislature, not the Constitution.  Congress is trying to reassert its control.   The latest reports indicate that the Republicans, which enjoy a...

(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot) Brazil’s government scored an important set of political victories yesterday, many of which impact the fiscal accounts.  It’s too soon to say that the tide has decidedly changed, but there are some positive signs, and asset prices are responding accordingly. By a close margin, the government managed to maintain two important vetoes.  With a margin of only six votes, the veto stopped an increase of nearly 60% in the salaries of judiciary...

Amid light news, the US dollar’s recent gains have pared slightly.    Attention turns to the US, were several Fed officials speak, October housing starts/permits will be released, and then later in the session, traders will peruse the minutes from last month's FOMC meeting.   The euro held Tuesday's low near $1.0630, and short-covering lifted the single currency to almost $1.07 before the bears showed their hand.   Similarly, after the JPY123.50 level was tested, the dollar pushed back,...

The EU is warning that Austria, Italy, and Lithuania are at risk of not achieving their 2016 budget goals.    It also warned Spain that is too may miss its target.  Nevertheless, the EU said there were no serious violations.  At the same time, the EU will exempt proven refugee spending from the budget scorecard.  In light of the attack on Paris, the EU's fiscal discipline faces a new challenge.  French President Hollande is arguing that the security pact trumps the stability pact.  France...

1.  In the Commitment of Traders reporting week ending November 10 covers the few days before the US employment data and a few days after.  Speculative participants made five significant (10k contracts or more) adjustments to gross positions in the currency futures.  The prior reporting period saw only three significant adjustments, and in growing gross short euro, yen, and Swiss franc positions. This week, four currencies, euro (+14 .7k contracts), yen (+16.7k contracts), Canadian...

In fiscal year 2014, which ended September 30 2014, the Federal government of the United States reported a cumulative deficit of US$484 billion, while the total debt outstanding increased by more than a trillion dollars. For fiscal year 2015, the difference was negligible because the US Treasury conducted so called emergency measures to adhere to the Congressional imposed debt ceiling. As soon as Congressional leaders agreed among themselves, the debt ceiling was raised and US debt...

In last week’s article, we explained how the yield curve could cause GDP to contract in The Yield Curve and GDP – a causal relationship. Some of our readers suggested the analysis was wrong on back of an outdated view of modern money creation. The critics claim modern banks are not dependent on central bank reserves to create additional money; citing a Bank of England article from 2014 (which we have been well aware of) [A] common misconception is that the central bank determines the...

Keith Weiner, chairman of the Gold Standard Institute United States, will be presenting in Zurich, this Wednesday, October 14 at 18.30. Title: Our Monetary System is Failing, and what we can do against it We hope that the Swiss National Bank will remain safe, during the collapse of the monetary system. We fear the collapse because money flows will direct towards Switzerland again and threaten the solvability of our central bank. Some background in English on the letter to Tsipras, in...

Over four years our association of supporters of Austrian Economics from Switzerland, Germany and Austria and helpful hands from all over the world expressed opposition against the CHF cap in in-numerous pages. Finally the SNB agreed to the wishes of Swiss consumers and gave up the cap that effectively represented a tax on consumption and extra-profits for companies and close friends of the central bank. Swiss Inflation Watch: Swiss inflation  As monetarists & Austrians we expect Swiss...

First week of February: Speculators are closing down their short positions on the euro– both against the dollar and against CHF. The carry trade is breaking down into a reverse carry trade. This leads to a strengthening of the euro versus CHF. Given that US data was better than expected, the speculative USD against CHF position should further augment. It was at 4600 contracts versus CHF.No SNB interventions: Sight deposits decreased slightly by 0.2 billion CHF, this implies that the SNB is...