Tag Archives: Mexico

Overview: There did not appear to be any negative surprises over the weekend, and this is helping calm investors' nerves at the start of the new week. Deutsche Bank shares have recovered most of the pre-weekend loss in the German market, and Stoxx bank index is posting a gain for the first time in four sessions. The AT1 ETF is slightly softer. In Japan, the Topix bank index slipped around 0.5%, its fourth decline in the past five sessions. Asia Pacific equities were...

Overview: The banking crisis is ebbing. The Bank of England and European Central Bank assured investors that the AT1 bonds are senior to equity claims, and Switzerland is a unique case. Bank share indices in the Europe and the US rose yesterday, even though the shares of First Republic Bank fell by 47% yesterday. The $123-stock at the end of last month reached almost $11 yesterday. It is trading around $14.75 pre-market. Global equities are building on yesterday's...

Overview: Many investors may be skeptical of the accuracy of Chinese data, but its stronger than expected February PMI animated the animal spirits and bolstered risk-taking appetites. Asia Pacific equities jumped, led by the 4.2% rally in Hong Kong and a 5% surge in the index that tracks mainland shares. Among the long bourses Australia and Singapore slipped, and South Korean markets were closed for a national holiday. Europe's Stoxx 600 is posting a small gain and...

Overview:  Rising rates and falling stocks provided the backdrop for the foreign exchange market this week. The dollar appreciated against all the G10 currencies but the Swedish krona, which is still correcting higher after the hawkish pivot by the central bank. The market looks for a later and higher peak in the Fed funds rate. This coupled with the risk-off sentiment helped the dollar extend its recovery after falling since last September-October. The yen's...

Overview:  The prospect that the Federal Reserve tightening cycle continues into early Q3 is underpinning the greenback today against most of the G10 currencies. The dollar bloc is the notable exception, and they are posting minor gains, perhaps encouraged by the firmer equity markets. The minutes of this month’s FOMC meeting appear to show wide support for quarter point hikes going forward and there did not seem to be much discussion of the conditions that would...

The dollar is mostly softer, but turnover is mostly quiet.  The Swedish krona leads the move after higher-than-expected underlying inflation.  It is a mild risk-on day with equities moving higher too.  In the Asia Pacific region, China stood with the CSI 300 up almost 2.5%.  Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up fractionally to recoup most of the pre-weekend decline.  US equity futures are narrowly mixed.  European bond yields are little changed, with a couple of exceptions: ...

Overview:  A series of strong US high-frequency data points after a poor finish to last year has spurred a dramatic shift in market expectations. And talk among a couple of (non-voting) FOMC members of a 50 bp hike has provided added fodder. The greenback is extending its recovery today against all the major currencies, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars hit the hardest. Emerging market currencies have also been knocked back. This is part of a larger risk...

(I am on a business trip and did not intend to post any analysis today. However, there have been a number of unexpected developments that warrant some commentary. Thanks for bearing with me.) Japanese press reports that the BOJ Deputy Governor Amamiya turned down the opportunity to become the next BOJ governor. Instead, next week, former BOJ board member Kazuo Ueda will be nominated. The market reacted dramatically, taking the yen sharply higher and sold JGBS....

Overview: The capital markets have shrugged off the more than 1% loss of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 yesterday and have jumped back into risk assets. The stocks and bonds have been bought and the dollar sold. Chinese and Hong Kong shares gained more than 1% today. Japan was mixed and Taiwan and South Korean equites saw minor losses. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up over 1%. Nasdaq futures are up nearly 1.2% while the S&P 500 is lagging slightly. European bonds yields are...

Inflation* in the US is falling rapidly with the CPI rising just 0.9% in the second half of 2022 versus 5.4% in the first six months. Existing home sales are down 14.6% in the last 3 months and 34% over the last year. Housing starts are down 22% and permits are down 30% year-over-year. Orders for durable goods are down 1.2%, exports are down 3.8%, and imports are down 4.3% over the last 3 months. Real disposable income is up 0.8% in the last six months but was down...