Tag Archives: market outlook

The CIO office’s view of the week ahead.As the results of European Parliament elections roll in, some unexpected outcomes are taking shape. While populists across the Union did win new seats, they did not fare as well as expected, while Green parties gained significant ground as voter turnout rose for the first time in four decades. Surprises at the country level could also lead to greater political instability for some constituents. In Greece, Alexis Tsipras’s Syriza party defeat means the...

The CIO office’s view of the week ahead.We are in the midst of a decisive elections season, from the surprise, poll-defying victory of the conservative coalition in Australia and Indian general elections last weekend to the European parliament elections in the week ahead. Exit polls suggest Indian prime minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata party are likely to return to power with a parliamentary majority. This was positive for Indian equities, which we retain an overweight...

The CIO office’s view of the week ahead.As a US-China trade negotiation impasse became evident last week, markets corrected a bit, particularly cyclical sectors. Given the strong US economy, Trump is feeling empowered to pursue his agenda, raising existing tariffs from 10-25% on USD 200bn worth of goods with immediate effect and threatening more. Now we will wait to see how China retaliates. For the time being, we feel assured that the Chinese authorities will not use currency or its US...

The CIO office’s view of the week ahead.Last week markets were relatively muted, with commodities down, developed markets flat and emerging markets up slightly. That brief period of calm has already ended, with Trump’s Sunday tweets sending Chinese markets sharply down on Monday. With the Chinese scheduled to attend the next round of trade negotiations in the US on Wednesday, the US president is putting extra pressure on China to concede to US demands and seal a deal through threats to...

The CIO office’s view of the week ahead.Spain’s governing Socialist party swept to victory at the weekend’s general elections, which enjoyed the highest turnout since 2008, with a 75% participation rate. Taking 29% of the vote however, the Socialist PSOE party is far short of an absolute majority and will need to form a coalition, which will likely be fragmented and unstable given the election results. Furthermore, an alliance is not likely to be confirmed before Spain’s regional elections...

The CIO office’s view of the week ahead.Positive economic data has sent relief through markets, with encouraging news coming out of the world’s two biggest economies. The Chinese economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, as the government’s stimulus policy begins to take effect. In the US, a rebound in consumer spending resulted in retails sales posting their biggest gain since 2017 in March. However, as astronomers published the first image of a black hole, the European...

The CIO office's view of the week aheadLast week delivered encouraging news on the outlook for global trade as improved Chinese exports and credit figures were seen as signs that the global trade slowdown would soon turn. On the back of March’s rebound in Chinese purchasing manager indices (PMIs), this means that as well as good news for the global trade outlook, the world’s second-largest economy may report better-than-expected Q1 2019 GDP this week.Last week, the European Central Bank...

The CIO office’s view of the week ahead.Risk assets were positive across the board last week, with volatility falling back into low territory. The rally was driven by encouraging signs from the world’s two biggest economies. In China, a turn in economic indicators has started to show through with manufacturing purchasing manager indices (PMI) moving back into expansion territory in March. At the same time, the US has returned to a ‘Goldilocks’ environment, with Friday’s solid employment...

The CIO office’s view of the week ahead.Good news came from the world’s second-largest economy after China’s manufacturing sector resumed growth in March, following three consecutive months of contraction. Employment in the sector also grew and new export orders even managed to move back into expansion territory, despite continued uncertainty around the outcome of trade talks between China and the US. We read these indicators as encouraging signs that the Chinese government’s fiscal stimulus...

The CIO office’s view of the week ahead.Last week, “Brextension” was confirmed by the UK Parliament, which voted in favour of a Brexit delay by 413 to 202. However, we are far from out of the woods yet as the EU must next approve the request, for which the UK must offer a satisfactory justification as to why they need it and how it would be used. For this reason, Theresa May’s deal may pass a third vote in parliament this week. If not, a long extension is possible, with president of the...