The latest US employment and inflation figures are passed. The market is confident of a 75 bp rate hike next month. While a 50 bp in December is still the odds-on favorite, the market has a slight chance (~15%) of a 100 bp move instead after the robust jobs report and stronger-than-expected September CPI. The implied yield of the December Fed funds futures has ground higher for 12 consecutive sessions to about 4.23%. After two straight quarters of contraction, the...
Read More »Can We Look Past US CPI ?
Overview: There seems to be a nervous calm today ahead of the US CPI. The dollar is hovering near JPY147 but the risk of BOJ intervention in the North American session seems slim. The BOE’s emergency Gilt buying operation ends tomorrow and UK bonds yields have tumbled. While equities in the Asia Pacific region lost ground, Europe’s Stoxx 600 is trying to snap a six-day decline. US equity futures are firm. Yields in Europe are mostly 3-6 bp lower, and despite...
Read More »Intraday Momentum Indicators Point to a Dollar Recovery After the Employment Report
Overview: Asia Pacific bourses followed yesterday’s US loss, but after opening lower Europe’s Stoxx 600 has steadied. US futures are narrowly mixed ahead of the US jobs report. Benchmark 10-year yields are higher across the board. The US 10-year Treasury yield is near 3.84%, slightly higher on the day. It is up a single basis point on the week. European yields are 3-5 bp higher. The dollar is softer against the G10 currencies, but as we note below, the intraday...
Read More »Markets Remain on Edge
Overview: The firmer than expected US CPI set off a major reversal of the recent price action. It is a two-prong issue. The first is about inflation and the squeeze on the cost-of-living. The second, and more powerful in the capital markets is how the Fed is likely to respond. This drove US stocks and bonds lower and lifted the dollar broadly. Asia Pacific bourses were a sea of red. Most major markets were off 1-2%, while the Nikkei, the Hang Seng, and Australia’s...
Read More »Will the Dollar Recover After CPI?
Overview: The US dollar remains offered ahead of today’s CPI report. Most European currencies are outperforming the dollar bloc, and the greenback is holding inside yesterday’s range against the yen. Most emerging market currencies are firmer, as well. China’s markets re-opened from the long-holiday weekend and the yuan is a touch softer. After the strong close to US equities yesterday, and some mild follow-through buying today in the futures, equities in the Asia...
Read More »Dog Days
Overview: The dog days of August for the Northern Hemisphere are here and the capital markets are relatively subdued. Equities are firmer. The notable exceptions in Asia was China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has advanced for the last three weeks. Europe’s Stoxx 600 slipped almost 0.6% last week and has recouped most of it today. US futures are steady to firmer. The US 10-year yield is struggling to stay above 2.8%, while European benchmarks...
Read More »Johnson’s Ability to Lead Tories into Victory at Risk with Today’s By-Elections
Overview: Asia Pacific equities were mixed. Gains were recorded in China, Hong Kong, Australia, and India, among the large markets, while Japan was mostly flat and South Korea and Taiwan shares fell. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off about 0.7%, the same as yesterday. US futures are slightly firmer. The rally in bonds continues. After falling nearly a dozen basis points yesterday, the US 10-year yield is off another 5 bp today around 3.10% it is near two-and-a-half week...
Read More »Dollar Jumps, Stocks and Bonds Slide
Overview: The prospect of a more aggressive Federal Reserve policy has spurred a sharp sell-off in global equities and bonds and sent the dollar sharply higher. The large Asia Pacific bourses were off mostly 2%-4%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off 2.2%, its fifth consecutive losing session. US futures are off also. The NASDAQ was down 3.5% before the weekend and the S&P 500 fell 2.9%. The dollar rocks. The Scandis and Antipodean currencies are bearing the brunt and are...
Read More »FX Daily, March 10: Markets Stabilize after Body Blow
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.09% to 1.0597 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: It appears after a few days of miscues, US officials struck the right chord, and the global capital markets seemed to stabilize shortly after the US session ended. President Trump’s press conference today is expected to spell out in greater detail relief for households and businesses....
Read More »Sozialdemokratische Unlogik
Besser kann man es nicht festmachen als am „kaputten Mietmarkt“. Man nimmt dem Markt das Regulativ – den Preis, was ihn erst funktionieren lassen kann, und behindert die Preisbildung mit einer Mietpreisbremse.Diese funktioniert natürlich nicht, weil es einfach nicht möglich ist, ein Angebot zu erhöhen, indem man den Preis niedrig hält. Dieses Nicht-funktionieren wird dann einem „nicht funktionierenden Markt“ angelastet. Es gibt kaum eine vergleichbarere Idiotie. Da wäre...
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