Tag Archives: GBP

Swiss Franc The EUR/CHF remains in the range of 1.0815 to 1.0980. The SNB usually intervenes below 1.0850. I am expecting that speculators are reducing their CHF short positions. More tomorrow. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 13 2016(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is firm, and the euro has slipped below $1.10 for the first time since late-July. Although the dollar’s...

Summary: The increase in the yen’s share of reserves was flattered by the yen’s 9% appreciation. The dollar and euro’s share of reserves were stable. Chinese integration has seen the share of unallocated reserves fall. Starting with Q3 data, (available end of March 2017) will break out the yuan’s share of reserves. The IMF provides the most authoritative data on central bank reserves. The composition is...

Summary: Regardless of outcome early next week, the High Court’s decision will likely be appealed. The issue is the role of parliament. The greater the role, the greater the risk of a delay, but also a better chance to minimize a hard Brexit. The UK decision to leave the EU has been both a political and economic shock. The near-term focus now shifts to the constitutional crisis that has ensued. The key issue...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF Overview, October 12 2016(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates News that UK Prime Minister May has accepted that Parliament should vote on her plan for exiting the EU stopped sterling’s headlong slide. Sterling had been pounded for roughly 8.5 cents since the start of the month including the last four sessions. The idea that parliament, where the Conservatives enjoy a...

Summary: Sterling’s decline is not longer coinciding with lower rates. Sterling’s decline is boosting inflation expectations. If the inflation expectations are realized (Sept CPI next week), it will quickly erode what ever competitive gains there may have been. Something has changed with sterling. It is not just last week’s flash crash that seems now to be more of a mark down than fat-finger, liquidity or...

Swiss Franc EUR CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 11 2016(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is bid against all the major and most emerging market curerncies.  An important driver is the backing up of US rates.  The two-year yield, which is particularly sensitive to Fed policy is at it highest levbel since early June (~86 bp).  The US 10-year yield is five basis points hihger...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 10 2016(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar has started the new week on a firm note. The light news stream and holidays in Japan, Canada and the United States make for a subdued session. Notable exceptions to the dollar’s gains are the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso. Both currencies appear to have been. underpinned by US...

High frequency economic reports will be not be among the key drivers of the capital markets in the week ahead. The light schedule, consisting mostly of industrial production in Europe, inflation for Scandinavia, and US retail sales, will have minimal impact on rate expectations. A November rate Fed move was never very likely. The September employment report needed to be amazingly strong to boost the chances, and it was...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 07 2016. - Click to enlarge FX Rates Sterling again steals the limelight. In early Asia, sterling inexplicably dropped nearly eight cents in minutes (to ~$1840), and on some platforms, may have traded below $1.1380. It almost immediately rebounded but has not resurfaced above $1.2480. Over the last couple of years,there have been a number of sudden dramatic moves...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 06 2016. - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is advancing against the major and most emerging market currencies. Activity is subdued and ranges are narrow. We share four observations about the price action. First, the euro has been unable to sustain upticks even after Germany reported a jump in industrial orders three-times more than the median estimate (1.0%...