Trade, inflation expectations and economic data could well spark ‘insurance’ rate cuts by the Fed in the coming months. We now believe that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could deliver two ‘insurance’ rate cuts of 25bps in coming months (up to now, we expected rates to be on hold in 2019-2020). We see three drivers that could dictate the exact timing of these cuts: 1) a continuation of President Trump’s pro-tariff stance...
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Trade, inflation expectations and economic data could well spark ‘insurance’ rate cuts by the Fed in the coming months.We now believe that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could deliver two ‘insurance’ rate cuts of 25bps in coming months (up to now, we expected rates to be on hold in 2019-2020). We see three drivers that could dictate the exact timing of these cuts: 1) a continuation of President Trump’s pro-tariff stance (with the risk of dampening business sentiment and therefore investment); 2)...
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