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Tag Archives: Featured

Markets Catch Collective Breath

Overview: The US dollar is mixed today. The dollar-bloc currencies are firmer, while the euro and yen are softer. We had anticipated a recovery of the dollar on ideas that the market has too aggressively pushed down US rates, and pricing in more Fed easing with higher confidence than seems to be warranted by the recent data.  However, US rates have not recovered, but the dollar has.  Partly, this reflects that rates have fallen as faster if not faster elsewhere, and...

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The Money Supply Continues its Biggest Collapse Since the Great Depression

Money supply growth fell again in October, remaining deep in negative territory after turning negative in November 2022 for the first time in twenty-eight years. October's drop continues a steep downward trend from the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years. Since April 2021, money supply growth has slowed quickly, and since November, we've been seeing the money supply repeatedly contract year over year. The last time the year-over-year...

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30-Year Mortgages Are Still a Sweet Deal—For People who Already Have Them

The thirty-year mortgage, of all things, came under attack in a piece by Ben Casselman in the New York Times. The three-decade fixed rate loan is, of course, a creation of the government and adds constant fuel to the US housing market. The title of Casselman’s piece calls the most popular debt instrument for home purchases “weird,” “cushy,” and “old.” He blames low interest rate thirty-year fixed loans for the broken housing market. Casselman points out that nearly...

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Socialism vs. Economic Freedom

[From Economic Policy: Thoughts for Today and Tomorrow (1979), Lecture 2, "Socialism" (1958)] I am here in Buenos Aires as a guest of the Centro de Difusión Economía Libre.1 What is economía libre? What does this system of economic freedom mean? The answer is simple: it is the market economy, it is the system in which the cooperation of individuals in the social division of labor is achieved by the market. This market is not a place; it is a process, it is the way in...

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Understanding Our Disharmony

One of the political trends of the past few years has been an expanding disconnect between political unity rhetoric and the increasing disharmony politicians’ proposals create. The root of this beltway cognitive dissonance is the rapid increase in government power. Unity rhetoric helps mobilize candidates’ political bases and can sway some independents, helping win elections. However, their postelection expansion of government power into areas where people have...

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Softer Tokyo CPI Buys BOJ Time while Moody’s Cuts the Outlook for China’s Debt following Fiscal Stimulus and the Continued Property Slump

Overview: Outside of the Australian dollar, which has fallen by around 0.6% following the RBA meeting and the softer final PMI, which may have dragged the New Zealand dollar a lower by around 0.25%, the other G10 currencies trading little changed ahead of the start of the North American session. The eurozone and UK final PMIs were revised higher. Central European currencies lead the emerging market currencies. China reported better than expected Caixin PMI and...

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The awakening of the working class 

Part I of II, by Claudio Grass, Switzerland It is a worn-out cliché that many (if not most) political zealots meet their downfall because of their arrogance. “Pride goes before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall,” the proverb goes, and it does prove true more often than not. The specific kind of pride, or haughty spirit, or plain hubris in this case, has to do with the certainty that some people have (one can’t imagine how and why it could...

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