Swiss Franc EUR/CHF, September 23, 2016Click to enlarge. FX Rates As Nassim Taleb instructed, we should not be fooled by randomness. If you see six red results in a row at a roulette table, do not conclude the game is rigged. If you flip a coin, and it is tails six consecutive times, the contest is not necessarily rigged. Today has the making of the sixth consecutive Friday that the dollar gains against the euro...
Read More »FX Daily, September 01: A Couple of Surprises to Start the New Month
[unable to retrieve full-text content]The new month has begun with a couple of surprises. The biggest surprise has been the record jump in the UK manufacturing PMI to 53.3 from 48.3. A much smaller rebound was expected in August after the Brexit shock drop in July.
Read More »FX Daily, August 23: Broadly Mixed Dollar in a Mostly Quiet Market
Swiss Franc Switzerland Trade Balance (See more posts for Switzerland Trade Balance) Click to enlarge. Source Investing.com FX Rates The US dollar is mostly little changed against the major, as befits a summer session. There are two exceptions. The first is the New Zealand dollar. Comments by the central bank’s governor played down the need for urgent monetary action and suggested that the bottom of cycle may be...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Yellen at Jackson Hole
Lastly, a brief word about next week. I will not post my usual piece on macro considerations on Sunday. Here, though, is a brief thumbnail sketch of the top five things I will be watching: 1. Yellen at Jackson Hole at the end of next week: To the extent that she shares her assessment of the economy, I would expect to largely echo the broad sentiment expressed by NY Fed President Dudley. Click to enlarge. 2....
Read More »FX Daily, August 01: Dog Days of August Begin
Swiss Franc Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar is trading with a small upside bias in narrow trading ranges. The main news has consisted of PMI reports, while investors continue to digest last week’s developments. In particular the BOJ’s underwhelming response to poor economic data and a missed opportunity to reinforce the fiscal stimulus, and the dismal US GDP. The dollar has been pinned today in the lower...
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