Tag Archives: ECB exit policy

A growth spurt may push us to raise our euro area GDP forecast for this year and next, although we expect some slowdown in the pace of expansion and the ECB to continue to act cautiously.While the latest euro area GDP numbers were broadly in line with expectations, at 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, net revisions to past data pushed the GDP profile higher again.Once detailed estimates are published by Eurostat—and assuming there are no significant revisions to past data—we might revise our...

The ECB could announce further changes to its forward guidance in June as part of its exit strategy from negative rates. But we think proper rates normalisation will only start in late 2019.The debate over the ECB’s exit strategy from its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has started in earnest. Recent comments point to a possible reversal in the exit sequencing, with a deposit rate hike preceding the end of net asset purchases.A one-off adjustment in negative rates would have some...