If the economy is repeating the after-effects of the latest “dollar” events, and it does seem more and more to be that case, then analysis starts with identifying a range for where it might be in the repetition. New orders for durable goods (ex transportation) rose 4.3% year-over-year in January 2017 (NSA, only 2.4% SA), the highest growth rate since September 2014 (though not meaningfully faster than the 3.9% rate in...
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Real GDP growth in the U.S. wasn’t particularly impressive in the third quarter –the 1.5 percent annualized increase came in just shy of the 1.6 percent consensus forecast and way down from the 3.9 percent reading in the second quarter. A look at the components of GDP growth, however, reveals a very positive signal for the future: Consumer spending has been the biggest contributor to GDP in recent quarters, and American consumers are spending enough to make up for stagnating exports and...
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