Tag Archives: consumption to GDP

Our analysis of the forecasts of economic data for 2015 shows that the Swiss banks were too optimistic for most data. US growth, the oil price, inflation and interest rates were far lower in 2015 than they expected. The forecast errors for stock indices and unemployment, however, were  smaller. In December 2014, the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) published the forecasts of the leading Swiss banks for the year 2015. UBS, Credit Suisse, Julius Bär, die ZKB, Raiffeisen, Pictet und J. Safra...

George Dorgan shows that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measurement in the local currency. Effectively, Swiss real GDP rose by 15% in Euro terms, but fell slightly in CHF. He also emphasizes that Switzerland needs a big rebalancing of its economy, away from exports towards consumption. The Swiss National Bank was right to remove the euro peg. The move towards consumption is only possible when the Swiss franc is stronger because consumers will profit on...