Tag Archives: Commitment of Traders

The latest Commitment of Traders report covers the week ending February 2 that included the FOMC meeting and the BOJ's surprise cut.  There was also speculation of a potential deal between Russia and OPEC to cut output.  Speculative position adjustment in the futures market was more limited than one might have expected.   Speculators cut 10.5k gross long yen contracts, leaving 82.5k contracts.  The bears added only 2.3k contracts to their gross short position, giving them 44.9k...

The latest Commitment of Traders report covers the week ending February 2 that included the FOMC meeting and the BOJ's surprise cut.  There was also speculation of a potential deal between Russia and OPEC to cut output.  Speculative position adjustment in the futures market was more limited than one might have expected. Speculators cut 10.5k gross long yen contracts, leaving 82.5k contracts.  The bears added only 2.3k contracts to their gross short position, giving them 44.9k contracts....

The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report covers the five sessions through January 26, the day before the FOMC concluded its two-day meeting and three days before the BOJ's announcement.  Speculators hardly changed their positioning during the period.  There was no gross position adjustments that we call significant, a bar we set at 10k contracts.   Indeed, in the most recent reporting period, there were only four gross position changes larger than 5k contracts.  The bears added 5.8k...

The latest Commitment of Traders report that covers the four sessions through January 19 saw speculators anticipating the continuation of the current moves.  Of the sixteen gross positions we track, only five were in reducing exposures.  Last week there was only six increased exposures.   With the benefit of hindsight, we know that something changed a day or two after the reporting period ended.  Given the magnitude of the reversal in some cases, some of these late positions were likely...

Speculative activity in the CME currency futures picked up in the latest reporting period. There were six significant gross position adjustments, which in our work is more than 10k contracts.   The gross short speculative euro position was reduced by 17.9k contracts, leaving 209.6k. Since early December, 53k gross short euro contracts were covered.  During the same time, about 17k gross long contracts were added.   Speculators stayed long the yen for the second consecutive week, and...

Due to the holidays, the CFTC has been releasing its Commitment of Traders report late.  With this week's  report, the normal Friday release schedule resumes.   The latest report covers the shortened week through January 5.  It is not surprising to find that speculative position adjustments were minor.  There was only one gross position adjustment of more than 8k contracts, and that was the long yen. Speculators increased their holdings by half to 67.5k contracts from 45k.   What is...

Speculative position adjustments in the currency futures were minimal in the immediate aftermath of the ECB's December 3 meeting and US employment data the following day. However, activity dramatically increased in the days ahead of the FOMC meeting on December 16.   In most Commitment of Traders reports the gross position adjustment of 10k or more contracts is seen in three or four of the 16 gross currency positions we track.  In the latest report, which covers the five sessions before...

1. Activity increased during the Commitment of Traders reporting week ending 8 December.  There were four significant (10k+ contracts) gross currency adjustments by speculators.  Given that this period covers the second largest gain in the euro's history, it is surprising that it did not meet the threshold.  It is astounding that only that speculators added only 1.8k contracts to their gross long position   2. The bears covered 11.7k short yen contracts, leaving them 94.5k.  Both the...

1.  Given the large moves in prices shortly after the CFTC reporting period ended on 1 December renders the latest Commitment of Traders report more dated than is usually the case. 2.  The Thanksgiving holiday that closed US markets reduced participation in the currency futures.  Of the 16 gross positions of the eight currency futures we track, none had a significant adjustment (more than 10k contracts). The 9.8k contract increase of speculative gross shorts euro futures (to 261.6k) was...

1.  The continued build of short currency futures positions characterizes the changes in the speculative positioning.  All the currency futures we track saw an increase in gross short positions. This is what drove the large net short positions.  One thing this means is that late shorts are in weak hands, and as we have seen in the Australian dollar, vulnerable to a squeeze.   2.  There were five significant (10k+ contracts) gross currency adjustments in the CFTC reporting week ending...