Tag Archives: Chinese imports

Net exports likely to be a drag on GDP growth in 2019.Chinese exports decelerated significantly in November, rising by 5.4% year-over-year (y-o-y), down from 15.5% the previous month. The slowdown in Chinese exports was likely a result of the deceleration in both global growth and the tapering of front-loading of exports to the US.Looking forward, we expect Chinese exports to decelerate further, especially in early 2019, just as China honours its commitment to increase purchases from the US,...

US trade policy's attention is now turning towards China, with a threat of new tariffs. But we see here a lot of political rhetoric.After the tariffs on steel and aluminium, the Trump Administration’s attention now seems to be focused on China as the US’s merchandise trade deficit with China rose to a new high of USD 375bn in 2017. The trade hawks close to Trump – Ross, Lighthizer and Navarro – seem to be having an increasing influence on Trump, and they seem eager to reach a new deal with...

Chinese exports declined in September, but strong construction activity means there is upside risk to our 6.5% growth forecast for 2016. Headline exports for China fell by 10% in September year-over-year (y-o-y), compared with a 2.8% drop in August. This significant downturn was partly due to a high base-year effect. The notable increase in Chinese exports in September 2015 (even after seasonal adjustments) makes the year-over-year comparison particularly unfavourable. In our view, the...

Improved export and import data, together with fiscal measures, mean that the Chinese economy remains on track to achieve 6.5% growth this year According to data released last week, China’s exports in August fell 2.8% year over year, which was better than Bloomberg consensus forecasts of a 4% drop and the 4.4% fall seen in July. Exports improved across the board, with exports strongest to developed economies. China’s headline export growth in year-over-year terms has been negative since...