The Chinese economy ended 2017 on a strong note. In Q4 2017, China’s GDP amounted to Rmb23.4 trillion (about USD3.7 trillion), rising 1.6% over the previous quarter and 6.8% year-over-year (y-o-y) in real terms. Full-year GDP came in at Rmb82.7 trillion (about USD12.9 trillion), growing by 6.9% in real terms and beating the consensus forecast as well as our own estimate (both at 6.8%). The strong 2017 growth number...
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China’s economy beat consensus growth forecasts in 2017 and we have revised up our own forecast for 2018.The Chinese economy ended 2017 on a strong note, rising 1.6% over the previous quarter and, growing by 6.9% in real terms over 2017 as a whole, thus beating the consensus forecast as well as our own estimate (both at 6.8%). The strong 2017 growth number marks the first full-year acceleration in the Chinese economy since 2010, and can be accredited to the synchronised global economic...
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Growth momentum regained traction in August after a poor July. Although GDP figures for the third quarter may surprise on the upside, the longer-term trend still shows Chinese growth slowing. Major economic indicators for August point to broad-based stabilisation of China's growth momentum after a weak start to the second half. The more upbeat macro picture is supported by improvements in the PMI reading and import data, and leads us to believe the likelihood of an upside surprise for...
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The latest data releases from China point to a sluggish start to the second half of 2016, but we are sticking to our 2016 growth forecast of 6.5%. Economic data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on 12 August remain largely consistent with our expectation of moderating growth momentum in China. Especially noteworthy has been the drop in fixed asset investment (FAI) growth. Going forward, we expect a further slowdown in property investment to be offset by fiscal support for...
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