Tag Archives: China GDP growth

We expect the authorities to adapt fiscal and monetary policies to deal with downward risks to growth prospects.Chinese GDP for Q2 came in at Rmb22.0 trillion (about USD3.4 trillion), rising 6.7% year-over-year (y-o-y) in real terms. This represents a moderate deceleration from Q1 (6.8% y-o-y), largely in line with our expectations (see chart). For the first two quarters of the year as a whole, the economy expanded by 6.8% compared to the same period last year.The data show that China’s...

The Chinese government’s work report for 2018 presents its priorities for growth and employment and lays down the roadmap for monetary and fiscal policy this year.China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) meetings are being held during March 5-20. On the first day, Premier Li Keqiang delivered the government work report, in which he outlined the major achievements of the past five years and laid out the key objectives and initiatives for 2018. The contents of the report are largely in line...

The Chinese economy ended 2017 on a strong note. In Q4 2017, China’s GDP amounted to Rmb23.4 trillion (about USD3.7 trillion), rising 1.6% over the previous quarter and 6.8% year-over-year (y-o-y) in real terms. Full-year GDP came in at Rmb82.7 trillion (about USD12.9 trillion), growing by 6.9% in real terms and beating the consensus forecast as well as our own estimate (both at 6.8%). The strong 2017 growth number...

China’s economy beat consensus growth forecasts in 2017 and we have revised up our own forecast for 2018.The Chinese economy ended 2017 on a strong note, rising 1.6% over the previous quarter and, growing by 6.9% in real terms over 2017 as a whole, thus beating the consensus forecast as well as our own estimate (both at 6.8%).  The strong 2017 growth number marks the first full-year acceleration in the Chinese economy since 2010, and can be accredited to the synchronised global economic...

Q3 growth figures were in line with our expectations and confirmed ongoing changes in the structure of the Chinese economy. Our forecast for Chinese GDP growth remains unchanged.Chinese GDP for Q3 2017 came in at Rmb21.2 trillion (USD3.2 trillion), growing by 6.8% y-o-y in real terms, slightly below the pace of expansion in the first half of the year (6.9%).Several points are worth highlighting.First, China’s economic transition is well underway. The tertiary sector, mainly services,...

Third-quarter data leads us to revise up our growth forecast for this year to 6.7%, but forecast for 2017 remains unchanged at 6.2%. The latest data releases confirm our view that the Chinese economy is stabilising for the moment and that growth is on track to meet the government’s target of 6.5%-7% in 2016. The strong Q3 GDP reading leads us to revise our full-year GDP forecast for China to 6.7% from our previous forecast of 6.5%.Recent Chinese data releases prompt several...