Tag Archives: China GDP

After a strong first quarter for Chinese growth, signs point to a weaker Q2.Latest hard data indicate that China’s growth momentum moderated in April, after a strong Q1. Industrial activity, fixed investment and consumption all weakened in April.In the context of escalating trade tensions with the US, we expect the Chinese government to step up stimulus measures to support growth in the coming months, especially in the area of infrastructure investment and household consumption.Given the...

The Chinese government set new economic targets and policy announcements for 2019, broadly in line with what we had been expecting.The new economic targets for 2019 and policy announcements are broadly in line with our expectations. They generally reflect Chinese policymakers’ intention to support growth in the face of economic headwinds but to avoid massive stimulus.The target for real GDP growth for 2019 was lowered to a range between 6.0% and 6.5%, from “around 6.5%” in 2018 and 2017,...

China’s economy is becoming more consumption oriented, driven by state policy, demographic changes and solid income growth.As the Chinese economy slows down, its structure is undergoing major changes. The traditional investment-driven growth model is gradually giving way to a consumption-driven one. Household consumption is not only taking a greater share of the economy, it has increasingly become a dominant driver of China’s growth.This transition, from a long-term perspective, is driven by...

Data shows strong fixed investment and industrial production, but consumption has weakened. We still expect 2017 GDP growth of 6.2%.The first batch of hard data on domestic activity for 2017 point to strong momentum in fixed-asset investment (FAI) and industrial production, while consumption has been on the weak side. In the first two months of 2017, FAI grew by 8.9% y-o-y, compared to 6.5% for December 2016 and 8.1% for 2016 as a whole. As FAI has been the key variable that drives China’s...

Rising debts and the risk that the Trump administration introduces protectionist policies are headwinds for the Chinese economy.Chinese GDP grew by 6.8% in Q4 2016 and by 6.7% in 2016 as a whole, in line with our forecast. The pickup in fixed-asset investment in the second half was probably the key contributor to this solid performance.The likelihood of a sharp deceleration in fixed-asset investment in Q1 2017 has declined greatly. Growth in infrastructure should pick up again this month and...

Chinese GDP slightly above expectations in Q2. We maintain our forecast of 6.5% growth this year. China’s GDP growth came in at 6.7% year-on-year in Q2 2016, unchanged from Q1 and slightly better than expectations. A detailed breakdown of the GDP number released on 15 July is still unavailable, but we can gain a better understanding of the state of the Chinese economy by looking at some other indicators that have been published recently.First, household consumption is becoming ever more...