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Tag Archives: 4.) Marc to Market

Week Ahead: China Returns and Flash PMI Featured after US Rate Adjustment was Extended

The US January CPI and PPI came in stronger than expected and this extended the recovery in US interest rates. In turn that helped underpin the dollar. We do not think the data itself changes the Fed’s stance. At least seven Fed officials speaking in the coming days will test this hypothesis. There are still several key reports before the data dependent FOMC meets again in about four weeks. Owing to the different weights and methodology, the PCE deflator, which the...

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Quiet End to a Busy Week

Overview:  The US dollar is winding down this week on a quiet note. Most of the G10 currencies are trading within yesterday's ranges. On the week, only the Scandis are set to close with gains, though with a little effort, the Australian dollar could too. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are the laggards off 0.65%-0.75% this week. Most emerging market currencies outside of central Europe are firmer. The South African rand is the strongest this week, followed by four...

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Divergence Highlighted by Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions in Japan and the UK but Little FX Reaction

Overview: There has been a string of disappointing economic news today. Japan’s economy surprisingly contracted in Q4 23 and the Q3 contraction was a little deeper than initially estimates. Australia’s jobs growth was weaker than expected and unemployment rose to 4.1%, matching the highest since November 2021. The UK’s economy contracted more than expected in Q4 23, its second consecutive quarter without growth. That seems like poor news ahead of today’s two...

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Japanese Officials Weigh-In and Help Yen Stabilize, while Euro and Sterling Extend Losses

Overview: The market's reaction to the firmer than expected January CPI seems exaggerated. We do not think it was the game-changer for the Federal Reserve that the market seemed to think. The dollar was driven higher, and it is stabilizing today, though the euro and sterling extended their losses, most of the other G10 currencies did not. After the yen's six-week slide did not elicit a response from Japanese officials, yesterday's drop did, and this may have helped...

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Sterling Buoyed by Labor Market Report Ahead of US CPI

Overview: The US dollar is enjoying a mostly firmer bias ahead of today's CPI report. Sterling is the strongest among the G10 currencies after a more resilient than expected labor market report. The dollar extended its gains against the Japanese yen to a new high since last November, but the market seems cautious as it approaches JPY150, where large options expire today. On the other hand, emerging market currencies are mostly faring better. The Mexican peso and...

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The Greenback is in Narrow Ranges to Start the Week

Overview: The foreign exchange market is quiet. The Lunar New Year holiday shut most Asian markets. That, coupled with the light news in Europe, have served to keep the dollar in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. The Swedish krona, Norwegian krone, and Japanese yen are posting minor gains against the greenback. The New Zealand dollar, which was strongest major currency last week (1.4%) is off by almost 0.5% today, making it the weakest today. RBNZ Governor...

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Week Ahead: Will Soft US CPI and Retail Sales Mark the End of the Interest Rate Adjustment and Help Cap the Greenback?

The markets are still correcting from the overshoot on rates and the dollar that took place in late 2023. The first Fed rate cut has been pushed out of March and odds of a May move have been pared to the lowest since last November. The extent of this year's cuts has been chopped to about 4.5 quarter-point move (~112 bp) from more than six a month ago. The market has reduced the extent of ECB cuts to about 114 bp (from 160 bp at the end of January and 190 in late...

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Greenback Surges as Rates Back Up

Overview: The US dollar is bid across the board and posting its best session of the month. It is up between about 0.5% (Canadian dollar) to almost 1.0% (Australian dollar) among the G10 currencies. Among the emerging market currencies, only the Russian ruble is holding its own. Approaching CNY7.20, the greenback is near two-month highs against the yuan. The dollar has been bolstered by rising US rates. The US two-year yield is up six basis points to near 4.20%,...

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Week Ahead: Real Economy

Given the world's turmoil, including the escalation, and broadening of the conflict in the Middle East and China's continued aerial harassment of Taiwan ahead of the election, the capital and commodity markets have remained firm. February WTI fell about 1.7% last week and March Brent slipped around 0.65%. Shipping costs are rising as the Rea Sea is avoided and supply chain disruptions are threatened. Still the MSCI index of developed equity market rose by nearly...

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China Data Dump Keeps Market Looking for a Rate Cut Next Week

Overview:  The mostly consolidative week for the US dollar continues. Most for the G10 currencies are +/- about 0.25% today and only a slightly wider range for the week. The odds of a Fed rate cut in March is virtually unchanged on the week at around 75%. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is practically flat on the day and week. The Russian ruble and Mexican peso lead today's advancers, while eastern and central European currencies are laggards. The...

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