Tag Archives: 4) FX Trends

A dollar-centric narrative would note that the greenback rose against most of the G10 currencies last week. Yet, the dollar, the most actively traded currency, was arguably not the prime mover in recent days. Rather, the unwinding of carry trades seems to be the driver of much of the price action. The low yielding yen and Swiss franc were the only G10 currencies to rise against the US dollar. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were the worst performers, losing...

Overview:  The powerful yen short squeeze that has roiled the capital market this week has stalled today. It is the first day this week that the dollar has not fallen below the previous day's low and has risen, though slightly, above previous session's high. The Antipodeans and Scandis are trading with a firmer bias. The yen and Swiss franc are the only two G10 currencies that are not stronger today. The stability of the yen appears to have removed some of the...

Overview: The capital markets are in flux. The powerful short-covering rally of the yen and unwinding of carry trades continues. For the second time this week, the PBOC has surprised by cutting interest rates. The dramatic sell-off of equities continues. The unexpected contraction of South Korea's Q2 GSP (-0.2%) is seen as confirmation of broader economic weakness Speculation of a more aggressive Federal Reserve is gaining ground. It is not that the odds of a cut...

Overview: The dollar's gains have been extended today, but in the risk-off mode, and unwinding of carry positions, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are firmer.  the dollar has stabilized in late European morning turnover. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to cut rates today and the greenback is pushing against CAD1.38, which it has not traded above for three-months. The US dollar gains, which we anticipated, are coming despite interest rates remaining soft. The...

Overview: The US dollar is firmer against all the G10 currencies but the Japanese yen. Local reports and the price action are consistent with short covering of the previously sold yen positions ostensibly ahead of next week's BOJ and FOMC meetings. Still, the greenback is holding above last week's low, slightly below JPY155.40. The Antipodeans and Scandis have extended their recent sharp losses. The euro eased to a seven-day low, a little below $1.0865, while...

Overview: News that President Biden will not seek re-election has left investors unsure of the next step, but PredictIt.org still points to a Trump advantage of slightly better than 60-40. It is not clear yet whether Vice-President Harris will be challenged for the nomination. The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies, with the dollar bloc and Norway weaker. The yen is up around 0.45% to lead the others higher. The Swiss franc, euro and sterling are slightly...

The consolidative phase for the dollar, we anticipated last week, after its recent drop, is evolving into a proper upside correction. We expect the dollar to trade broadly firmer over the next week or so. It is also part of a larger picture, where US interest rates also look to have put in a near-term bottom and are set to recover. Ideas that next US administration may favor a weaker dollar has become a talking point. Yet, of all the forces that drive the $7.5...

Jury duty assignment prevents a more comprehensive note, but here is a snapshot. Overview: The failure of computer systems has disrupted airlines, banks, media companies, and the London Stock Exchange, ostensibly stemming from an update from a third-party software update, according to Microsoft. The dollar is trading with a firmer bias. The consolidation, we anticipated, appears to be morphing into a correction. Weaker than expected retail sales has driven sterling...

Jury duty assignment prevents a more comprehensive note, but here is a snapshot. Overview: The US dollar enjoys a firmer bias today, in mostly quiet turnover in narrow ranges. The Australian dollar is a noted exception, and the better than expected jobs growth may have lent it some resilience today. The greenback initially was sold to almost JPY155.35, a new low (since June 7) before recovering to nearly JPY156.60 in Europe. The UK's employment report saw the first...

Jury duty assignment prevents a more comprehensive note, but here is a snapshot. Overview: The dollar is broadly lower, and stocks are under pressure. Comments by a Japanese official, which did not appear to break new ground, coupled with Trump's interview in BusinessWeek, where he was critical that Japan was benefiting from a weak yen, despite having apparently spent some $80 bln this year trying to stop it from falling, may have been the trigger. The dollar has...