by The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements. The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy. The UBS Consumption Indicator rose to 1.53 points in August from 1.45. This development was fueled by resurging tourism and above-average car sales for the month. However, the situation on the labor market casts a shadow on this rise. Zurich, 28 September 2016 – The UBS Consumption Indicator rose to 1.53 points in August from 1.45. Tourism accounted for much: The 1.6 % increase in overnight hotel stays compared with the previous year indicates that summer tourism took off after all. Meanwhile, the Swiss car market has maintained a pleasantly high level. New vehicle registrations in August were above the corresponding monthly average since the start of the millennium. Private consumption vs. UBS Consumption Indicator In spite of this positive trend, however, there is still no reason for euphoria, because the situation on the labor market is rather ambivalent. Second-quarter employment figures did indeed record a slight rise over the previous quarter, but they fell compared with the previous year.
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The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements. The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy.
The UBS Consumption Indicator rose to 1.53 points in August from 1.45. This development was fueled by resurging tourism and above-average car sales for the month. However, the situation on the labor market casts a shadow on this rise.
Zurich, 28 September 2016 – The UBS Consumption Indicator rose to 1.53 points in August from 1.45. Tourism accounted for much: The 1.6 % increase in overnight hotel stays compared with the previous year indicates that summer tourism took off after all. Meanwhile, the Swiss car market has maintained a pleasantly high level. New vehicle registrations in August were above the corresponding monthly average since the start of the millennium.
Private consumption vs. UBS Consumption IndicatorIn spite of this positive trend, however, there is still no reason for euphoria, because the situation on the labor market is rather ambivalent. Second-quarter employment figures did indeed record a slight rise over the previous quarter, but they fell compared with the previous year. The uncertainty on the labor market could restrain a more dynamic trend in consumer sentiment in the coming months. The Swiss economy can in fact look back on a respectable growth figure of 1% in the first half of the year. But until this growth is reflected on the labor market, private consumption will probably show no great improvement either. |
Switzerland Private Consumption and UBS Consumption Indicator, September(see more posts on Switzerland Private Consumption, Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator, ) Switzerland Private Consumption and UBS Consumption Indicator – click to enlarge. |
How the UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated
The UBS Consumption Indicator signals private consumption trends in Switzerland with a lead time of one to three months on the official figures. At more than 50%, private consumption is by far the most important component of Swiss GDP. UBS calculates this leading indicator from six consumer-related parameters: new car registrations, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays by Swiss residents, the consumer sentiment index, employment figures and credit card transactions made via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland. With the exception of the consumer sentiment index and employment figures, all of this data is available monthly.