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SNB & CHF

The 3-3-3 Rule

Donald Trump nominated seasoned hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as the next Treasury Secretary. While the Treasury Secretary has many responsibilities, debt management is one of the most important. Therefore, given the recent scrutiny the bond market has been paying to high deficits and associated debt, Scott Bessent appears to be a timely appointment. Bessent appears to appreciate the bond market's concern, which helps explain why he immediately released his 3-3-3...

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Credit Spreads: The Markets Early Warning Indicators

Credit spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often involves Treasury bonds (considered risk-free) and corporate bonds (which carry default risk). By observing these spreads, investors can gauge risk appetite in financial markets. Such helps investors identify stress...

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Europe, the UN and the battle for human rights

Send us a text (https://www.buzzsprout.com/twilio/text_messages/915097/open_sms) Is the world still committed to human rights? Our Inside Geneva podcast is in Strasbourg, where the Council of Europe is discussing how to defend the fundamental principles we agreed upon after the Second World War. “We can’t just say, ‘Do it because it’s a human right’ or ‘Do it because it’s in a treaty.’ We have to demonstrate: ‘Do it, and this is how...

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Our History of Protectionist Tariff Train Wrecks

Protectionist tariffs are associated with a long history of economic and social calamities in America. An important reason for this is that protectionist tariffs are a political tool of plunder and theft, and people don’t generally take kindly to being plundered and robbed. The only real difference between a lobbyist for protectionist tariffs and an armed robber is that the robber is armed. If the robber says “Give me a thousand dollars or I will shoot you” it is...

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Bitcoin knapp unter 100’000-Dollar-Marke: Das waren die wichtigsten Meilensteine der Krypto-Erfolgsgeschichte

• "Satoshis Whitepaper" in 2008 veröffentlicht <br> • Bitcoinkurs von starker Volatilität gekennzeichnet <br> • Ein Schmuddelkind wird salonfähig<br> <!-- sh_cad_1 --> Obwohl es schon davor Versuche einer digitalen und dezentralisierten Währungen gab, gilt der <a href="/devisen/bitcoin-dollar-kurs" target="_blank"... [embedded content]...

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Could an Increase in the Supply of Gold Cause a Boom-Bust Cycle?

According to the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), the artificial increase in the money supply via central bank expansionary monetary policy lowers the market interest rate. This, in turn, causes the market interest rate to deviate from the natural rate, determined by the market. Consequently, this leads to the boom-bust cycle. Understanding this, on the gold standard, where money is gold and—assuming that there is no central bank—an increase in the supply of...

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Markets do Cartwheels in Response to Traditional Pick for US Treasury Secretary

Overview: The selection of Scott Bessent, the hedge fund manager as next US Treasury Secretary was greeted euphorically in the capital markets:  one of their own and, arguably, like many of new economics team could have been picked in any Republican administration. Risk appetites have been animated. Still, we suspect market positioning may have led to an exaggerated response. The dollar has been sold. Stocks have bought. The euro is leading the G10 currencies...

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Climate Anxiety: A Regime-Created “Illness”

A quick internet search for “climate anxiety,” which is also often referred to as “eco-anxiety,” “eco-grief,” or “climate doom,” produces numerous links to the psychological and psychiatric literature on the topic. The Program on Climate Change Communication within the Yale School of the Environment appears to be a major contributor to this research. Mental health professionals and mass trauma researchers report seeing more patients with symptoms of this anxiety, but...

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Bitcoin Is Entering Volatility Season

Since the election, Bitcoin has risen nearly 50%. While Bitcoin investors are licking their chops, believing the magnificent rally will continue, they need to realize that Bitcoin is entering a period of pronounced seasonal volatility. The graph below from Sentimentrader shows that the recent performance has tracked the typical performance for the time of year. However, as they highlight with the green line, the recent gains may fade, and volatility in Bitcoin may...

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