Tag Archives: USD

Click to see video. I was invited to appear on CNBC Asia Rundown show with Pauline Chiou.   We discuss the Chinese yuan on the anniversary of last summer’s unexpected devaluation.  I suggest that most of the things that get observers excited, like the internationalization of the yuan, or the Hong Kong-Shanghai link or, perhaps by the end of the year,a Hong Kong-Shenzhen link are really Chinese machinations that...

Swiss Franc Click to enlarge. FX Rates European bourses are mixed, and this is leaving the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 practically unchanged in late-European morning turnover. Financials are the strongest sector (+0.4%), and within it, the insurance sector is leading with a 0.8% advance and banks are up 0.4%. The FTSE’s Italian bank index is up 1.4% to extend its recovery into a fifth session. Bond markets are broadly...

Swiss Franc The Swiss Franc appreciated today against the euro. Given that the Bank of England started monetary easing, this slight appreciation is unexpectedly weak – reason was probably intervention. The SNB intervention level should be around 1 billion francs. Numbers revealed in next week’s sight deposits. Click to enlarge. Bank of England The Bank of England owns today, though tomorrow will be about the US...

Swiss Franc Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar is consolidating yesterday’s losses.  The greenback’s upticks have thus far been shallow and unimpressive, except perhaps against the New Zealand dollar, which is off 0.8% ahead of next week’s RBNZ meeting.  Softer than expected labor cost increase reinforces the conviction that a 25 bp rate cut will be delivered next week. The asset markets are more...

Summary: China’s excess capacity is one of the most formidable challenges the China and the world face. Unexpectedly, China’s steel industry reported a profit in H1 16. M&A for industry rationalization and foreign markets seem to be the main ways China is trying to address the excess capacity. Americans have a saying about an 800-pound gorilla in a room.  It refers to a person or organization so...

Swiss Franc The euro appreciated against both Swiss Franc and dollar. Swiss retail sales was again very weak, but emphasize our last month comment: The measurement of retail sales (and also GDP) ignore the active second-hand markets in Switzerland. The Swiss SVME PMI was at 50.1 close to contraction, another piece of bad data. Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar is offered against the major currencies, but...

Swiss Franc Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar is trading with a small upside bias in narrow trading ranges.  The main news has consisted of PMI reports, while investors continue to digest last week’s developments. In particular the BOJ’s underwhelming response to poor economic data and a missed opportunity to reinforce the fiscal stimulus, and the dismal US GDP. The dollar has been pinned today in the lower...

Summary: The real broad trade-weighted dollar index rose in July for the third month. It peaked in January above trendline drawn through the Reagan and Clinton dollar rallies. Expect the trendline to be violated again before the end of the year. This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, depicts the Federal Reserve’s real broad trade-weighted index of the dollar. Real means that it is adjusted for inflation...

Summary: RBA meeting is a close call. BOE meeting consensus on rate cut, maybe new QE and lending-for-funding. More details of Japan’s fiscal policy. U.S. jobs data. After this week, and outside of RBNZ rate cut, August may be uneventful. There are four events this week that will command the attention of global investors. The Reserve of Bank of Australia is first.It is a close call, though the median in the...

Prospects for the Swiss Economy Remain Favourable The KOF Economic Barometer has only changed little and reached a value of 102.7 in July. In June, and therefore before the referendum in the United Kingdom about its membership in the EU, the KOF Economic Barometer stood at a value of 102.6 (revised from 102.4). Thus the Barometer has been standing above the historical average since February this year. Despite the...