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Tag Archives: US forecasts

US unemployment falls to fresh cyclical low

US average hourly earnings data were slightly disappointing in April, but the non-farm payroll figure was robust and the unemployment rate continued to decline.Non-farm payroll employment rose by a solid 211,000 in April, above consensus expectations.Unexpectedly, the US unemployment rate continued to fall from 4.5% in March to 4.4% in April, and is now significantly below the Fed’s median estimate for full employment (4.8%).However, wage data were somewhat disappointing, with the pace of...

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Wage growth eases in the U.S. despite strong job creation

The first US jobs report of 2017 saw employment beat consensus. But some details were disappointing, including wage growth.Non-farm payroll employment in the US rose by 227,000 month on month in December, above consensus expectations (180,000). The unemployment rate rose slightly further, to 4.8% in December while the broader U6 unemployment rate rebounded to 9.4%. Overall, however, the underlying picture remains one of ongoing improvement in US labour market conditions. As we highlighted in...

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