Tag Archives: Unwinding QE

The ECB’s meeting on 14 December would be a non-event if it were not for two specific points to make clear before the Christmas break – the staff forecasts for inflation, and the not-so-constructive ambiguity on QE horizon. We expect no major surprise from the new staff projections, reflecting the ECB’s cautiously upbeat tone. Euro area real GDP growth forecasts will likely be revised higher for the fifth...

At the 14 December meeting, attention will be focused on the ECB staff forecasts and any changes in communication on plans for unwinding QEs. The main talking points ahead of the ECB’s last policy meeting this year on 14 December are the new staff projections for growth and inflation as well as forward guidance on asset purchases. We expect higher oil prices to push ECB staff forecasts for inflation higher, to 1.4% in 2018 and 1.6% in 2019. A lower...